Several years in the airline industry stand out. Many will point to 2001, 2008, 2010, and 2013 as some pivotal years that permanently reshaped the industry. Now, 2022 is starting to become one of them, as nearly every airline enters a new phase in its long or short history.

The big story: Frontier and Spirit

Arguably the biggest story of 2022 is the anticipated merger between Frontier Airlines and Spirit Airlines. Creating the fourth-largest carrier in the US and largest ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) in the country, the merger was not exactly unexpected. Still, its timing and impacts will certainly be notable and put a real test on the industry.

Setting aside the impact on the market, one of the biggest things this merger will tell is the Biden Administration's appetite is with respect to airline mergers. The Department of Justice (DOJ) will need to sign off on the merger, but it remains to be seen if it will blanket deny it or if it will require the airlines to accept some concessions.

The DOJ is looking to promote competition, including pushing for increased competition out of Newark. It has even gone as far as suing American Airlines and JetBlue over their Northeast Alliance, which was formally approved by the Department of Transportation (DOT). Should the merger go through with no, or relatively few, conditions, it could lead other carriers in the industry to think about consolidation.

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Photo: Jay Singh | Simple Flying

Beyond that, the merger will significantly impact the overall competitive environment. Together, the two airlines will offer a near unbeatable nationwide ULCC network. This will certainly prompt other airlines to respond.

A premium focus: United and Delta

United Airlines announced last year that it would be moving its attention to a more premium travel experience. Estimated this year, the airline is planning a double-digit percentage increase of roughly 25% in its premium seats per departure in 2022, when including both first class and extra-legroom economy products. In the widebody market, United already beats its competitors in premium cabins per departure on long-haul international operations.

Beyond premium offerings, United is also targeting its international focus. The airline has traditionally had more exposure than other airlines in the international sphere. This year, United is continuing to target international expansion, with five new destinations (Amman, Palma de Mallorca, Tenerife, Ponta Delgada, and Bergen) across the Atlantic.

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Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying.

Delta Air Lines is another carrier that has placed its bet on a premium focus. This year, the airline will hit a milestone when it expects to roll out an international premium economy product on all transatlantic and transpacific routes. This will enable it to offer a standardized international suite of products.

At the same time, Delta's joint venture strategy is continuing to roll out. The airline is working on its plans with LATAM, which may receive approval this year, and it has boosted its flights to Europe, targeting growth in a market underscored by its joint venture with Air France, KLM, and Virgin Atlantic.

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Delta Air Lines is also looking to resume its transpacific flights soon. Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying

American Airlines targets new opportunities

American Airlines will be the center of attention in many of the big happenings in the industry in 2022. First and foremost, the airline made headlines late last year when it announced it would need to pull back its schedule as a result of ongoing delays to Boeing 787 deliveries. It may still need to pull back some of its capacity as the timing of the resumption of 787 deliveries remains unclear. It is, however, teasing some interesting plans with its Boeing 787-9s.

At home, American Airlines is also expecting to benefit from two of its close partnerships. One is a West Coast alliance with Alaska Airlines, and the other is its Northeast Alliance with JetBlue. Both of these partnerships give the airline a stronger network on both coasts and offer new launching pads for international service, as the airline has done with New York (JFK). Both of these partnerships will continue to be a big driver in 2022.

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Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying

Low-cost continues to dominate

Southwest Airlines is the largest domestic airline, but what it plans to do in 2022 is not continue to expand but continue to grow depth. It wants to bring back its pre-crisis schedule, which will be much of the airline's focus in 2022. Building back this schedule along with the airline's major expansion throughout the crisis and growth in Hawaii, Southwest will be a much stronger airline domestically, all while adding more MAX jets to its fleet.

A Southwest Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 8 on a runway.
Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying

Turning to the remaining ULCCs, Avelo, Breeze, Allegiant, and Sun Country all have major plans for 2022. Allegiant will be preparing to induct a brand new fleet (the 737 MAX) while continuing its other growth. Avelo plans to more than double in size and has already announced a significant push in New Haven. Breeze will start flying its Airbus A220s, and Sun Country will continue to grow its fleet of Boeing 737s. Altogether, the ULCC sector is poised for major growth.

The US airline industry will be undergoing a major change in 2022. With the continued rise of ULCCs, a continued bet on various strategies, and a major year for the government's interest in competition in the marketplace have set the stage for a defining and very interesting year in American aviation.