Air Serbia will double its US footprint with a second route. Next spring, Belgrade to Chicago will begin. It'll return after last being served in 1991, some 32 years ago, using the DC-10 – meaning it isn't technically new.

Existing JFK will also rise to 1x daily. While exact details of Chicago and JFK are currently unknown, it is a significant development for the Serbian flag carrier. To enable it, it is acquiring a second A330-200, which is expected this October.

Air Serbia adds Chicago

The appeal of Chicago seems obvious, at least in terms of passengers rather than fares. The city is known for having many Serbians and those of Serbian ancestry. Indeed, booking data shows that approximately 32,000 roundtrip passengers traveled between Chicago and Belgrade in 2019, making the city the largest unserved market in the US.

Of course, like JFK, Chicago won't just revolve around Belgrade demand, with Chicago home to numerous people from Southeastern Europe. It'll also target this market. In 2019, over 68,000 traveled to Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Slovenia. It'll probably also target the likes of Tel Aviv, Bucharest, Athens, Thessaloniki, and more.

Despite Belgrade passenger traffic, Chicago isn't the largest unserved market in North America. With over 42,000 passengers, Toronto is. And Toronto has more traffic to those Southeastern countries, with Air Canada Rouge and Air Transat both serving the Croatian capital, Zagreb, in 2019 (now only Air Transat does). Might Air Serbia add Toronto at some point?

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A look at its JFK operation

As you might expect, North America-Belgrade demand is heavily summer-seasonal. To capture this higher demand and the higher fares, Air Serbia has up to 6x weekly summer flights to JFK, just like it did in peak 2018 and 2019. Flights reduce to 2x weekly this winter but are set to rise to 1x daily, its highest ever, next year, presumably June-August.

Its current schedule is as follows, with all times local. It has a split schedule to increase connections and passenger volume over its Belgrade hub.

• Belgrade-JFK: JU500, Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays: 07:50-11:50 (a block time of 10h); Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays: 13:15-17:15 (10h)
• JFK-Belgrade: JU501, Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays: 14:35-05:25+1 (8h 50m); Thursdays, Fridays, Saturdays: 19:30-10:20+1 (8h 50m)

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Where do JFK passengers go?

According to Department of Transportation (DOT) data, Air Serbia's Belgrade-JFK service carried 176,636 passengers between 2019-2021, although 2020 and 2021 obviously saw far fewer passengers than pre-pandemic 2019. Still, it only achieved an 80% seat load factor (SLF) in 2019, although summer months were often 85-90%.

Relating DOT figures to booking data in these three years suggests that Air Serbia's JFK service is pretty well-balanced. Around 40% of passengers were point-to-point (only traveled between New York and Belgrade), while 39% transited Belgrade. Some 19% connected over JFK and the remaining 2% 'bridged' both airports.

JFK-Podgorica was by far the largest transit market, followed by Tirana, Skopje, Athens, Tel Aviv, Tivat, Thessaloniki, Zagreb, Ljubljana, Vienna, and Bucharest. In 2019, Tirana was JFK's second-largest unserved market and the USA's eighth-largest. While passenger numbers were good, it suffers from low fares due to being so driven by visiting friends and relatives and low premium demand.

What do you make of it adding Chicago? Let us know in the comments.