Air Serbia has added Chicago as its second US route and it is now bookable. It'll begin in May and will join the existing Belgrade-JFK. Chicago was last served by JAT, Air Serbia's predecessor, in 1991 using the DC-10. It joins another long-haul route: Belgrade-Tianjin, which begins in December.

Air Serbia adds Chicago

The first Chicago flight by Air Serbia will be on May 17th, with 2 weekly flights. It'll rise to 3 weekly from June 12, in time for the peak summer; it is, after all, a summer-seasonal market.

It will use the A330-200, with a second example due soon. It is currently leasing one Wamos A330-200 (EC-NUI), presumably as its own sole A330 (YU-ARB) undergoes maintenance.

In what is a significant development for the carrier, Chicago is scheduled as follows, with all times local. Notice a 06:50 departure on Wednesdays; it'll be fed by flights from across the Balkans in particular.

• Belgrade-Chicago: JU506, Wednesdays 06:50-10:50; Mondays 12:50-16:50; Saturdays 17:20-21:20
• Chicago-Belgrade: JU507, Wednesdays 12:40-05:30+1; Mondays 18:40-11:30+1; Saturdays 23:10-16:00+1

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Why Chicago?

The appeal of Chicago is obvious. The city is known for having many Serbians and those of Serbian heritage. According to booking data, ~37,000 roundtrip point-to-point (P2P) passengers traveled between Chicago and Belgrade in 2019. That year, Chicago was Belgrade's largest unserved US market. If Canada is added, it was North America's second-largest, beaten only by Toronto with ~48,000; a future opportunity?

While passenger volume is one thing, fares are quite another. Being so driven by visiting friends and relatives demand, renowned for being the lowest of the low for airline yields, Belgrade-Chicago's average one-way fare in 2019 was just $276 (excluding taxes and any fuel surcharge), the result of little premium demand. For a simple and quite unfair comparison, Cincinnati-London Heathrow was $871.

Inevitably, Chicago won't just revolve around Belgrade P2P demand. Chicago is home to many people from Southeastern Europe, a particular target for Air Serbia. In 2019, over 68,000 traveled between Chicago and Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Slovenia. It is likely to also target demand elsewhere, such as Athens. This grows the target opportunity to over 150,000; of course, it'd get only a small proportion.

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What about Belgrade-JFK?

According to the US Department of Transportation, Air Serbia carried 72,902 JFK passengers in 2019. Analyzing booking data reveals that about 39% of passengers transited Belgrade. JFK-Podgorica was the most popular transit market, followed by Tirana, Skopje, Athens, Tel Aviv, Tivat, Thessaloniki, Zagreb, Ljubljana, Vienna, and Bucharest.

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With 91,694 seats for sale in 2019, JFK achieved a seat load factor (SLF) of 80%. Passenger traffic varied widely per month. Despite just 2,599 seats in February, the SLF was only 62%. In comparison, it had 12,081 seats in August and an 88% SLF, reflecting just how seasonal the market is.

Obviously, passenger traffic has fallen since then. In 2020, Air Serbia carried 42,032 JFK passengers (SLF of 79%) and 61,702 last year (77%). Since Air Serbia started JFK in 2016, it has carried 373,714 passengers (77% on average).

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Have you flown Air Serbia long-haul? If so, share your experience in the comments.