• rsz_airbus_50th_years_anniversary_formation_flight_-_air_to_air
    Airbus
    Stock Code:
    AIR
    Date Founded:
    1970-12-18
    CEO:
    Guillaume Faury
    Headquarters Location:
    Toulouse, France
    Key Product Lines:
    Airbus A220, Airbus A320, Airbus A330, Airbus A340, Airbus A350, Airbus A380
    Business Type:
    Planemaker

In its 2022 Global Market Forecast, Airbus forecasts demand for 39,490 new passenger and freighter aircraft over the next 20 years. The 2022 forecast is 470 aircraft over last year's, which Airbus attributes to increased demand for the latest technology and fuel-efficient aircraft to replace older planes. The forecast is also positively affected by 2021, an extremely weak year for aviation, falling out of the 20-year forecast period.

This year Airbus has changed how it characterizes aircraft types, not just nominating their category by size. Airbus now has just two classifications, 'typically single-aisle' and 'typically widebody.' This reflects how single-aisle aircraft are used on formerly widebody routes and widebodies deployed on short-haul services. Of the 39,490 aircraft Airbus predicts will be needed between 2022-2041, 31,620 or 80% will be typically single-aisle, and 7,870 will be typically widebody.

In its Global Market Forecast (GMF22), Airbus includes passenger aircraft with more than 100 seats and freighters with a payload above ten tonnes (22,046 lbs). At the beginning of 2020, Airbus says there were 22,880 aircraft in service, and 7,440 of them, or 33%, will still be in service in 2041. That includes aircraft delivered in 2020 and 2021. This leaves 15,440 to be replaced, with market growth demanding another 24,050 aircraft be added to the global fleet, more than doubling it to just under 47,000 in 2041.

China needs to reopen to hit the 2041 forecast

The highest demand will come from Asia-Pacific and China, with 45% of global aircraft deliveries combined. On a regional basis, deliveries generally follow the 80/20 split, except for the Middle East, where widebodies are marginally ahead with a 51% share.

GMF-2022-2041-Infographic 2
Infographic: Airbus

Forecasts going out 20 years are based on certain assumptions of how the future will pan out. Airbus expects world annual passenger traffic to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.6% from 2019 to 2041, slightly down from the 3.9% it forecasted last year. In 2019 revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) were close to ten trillion, and these will be at 20 trillion by 2041. The largest traffic flows will be in China's domestic market, followed by the US domestic, Western Europe to the US and Intra-Western Europe markets. The fastest growth will come from domestic travel in India and the emerging nations of Asia.

Airbus also believes there will be increasing pressure for new-generation aircraft to replace older types, both from an economic and sustainability perspective. It denotes new generation aircraft as its A220, A320neo family, A330neo, A350 and A380 aircraft. It also includes Boeing B737 MAX, B777X, B787 and any new programs on the list. In 2021 Airbus says that only 20% of the world's fleet were new-generation aircraft, but that will rise to more than 95% by 2041, driven by the pressure to decarbonize aviation in the short to medium term.

Will the new generation still be new in 2041?

British Airways, Airbus A350, One Year
New generation, fuel-efficient aircraft like the Airbus A350 will make up 95% of the world's fleet by 2041. Photo: Tom Boon - Simple Flying

Despite the current state of world affairs, world trade is expected to double in the next 20 years, boosted by rapid growth in the express e-commerce market. The global freighter fleet will grow from 2,030 in 2020 to 3,070 in 2041, with a demand for 2,440 new-build or converted freighters. Airbus has three categories of freighters: single-aisle with a payload between 10t to 40t, mid-size widebody from 40t to 80t and large widebody with a payload greater than 80t. It says there will be demand for 990 single-aisle, 890 mid-size and 560 large freighters between 2022 and 2041.

Discover more aviation news here

Given the state of commercial aviation today, the thought of twice as many aircraft in the sky seems almost impossible to comprehend. The ramifications for airports, air traffic control, SAF production, pilot, cabin crew and technician training, to name a few, are mind-boggling.

As important is the social license aviation needs for its survival, with some governments already mandating when and where airlines can fly. Documents like this, and similar ones produced by Boeing and Embraer, show where the industry is heading, but not necessarily how to get there. What do you think about doubling the commercial fleet?