The future of Boeing's 737 MAX in China has become even more uncertain, with China Southern Airlines leaving it out of its fleet plans through 2024.

In a presentation last week, China Southern Chairman Ma Xulun told investors that, excluding the MAX, the airline expects to take delivery of 30 aircraft in 2022, 36 in 2023 and 12 in 2024. In its 2021 Annual Results, filed on March 30, the airline said it was planning to add 181 new aircraft through 2024, including 103 Boeing B737 MAX.

On Monday, Bloomberg reported that, based on Ma's comments, China Southern had removed more than 100 B737 MAX jets from its near-term fleet plans. It added that an investor relations representative from the airline said on Friday the MAX wasn't included due to "uncertainty surrounding the delivery," without providing further details.

Boeing's B737 is welcome, but not MAX

China Southern has a fleet of 645 aircraft, which ch-aviation.com says comprises 375 Airbus and 270 Boeing aircraft. China Southern has 313 Airbus A320 family and 212 Boeing B737 aircraft within its narrowbody fleet. So while Boeing has around 40% of the fleet, it does lag behind Airbus in the relationship with China Southern.

It's a bitter blow for Boeing that China Southern, the planemaker's biggest airline customer in China, has reversed its plans to take 39 B737 MAX 8 this year, just weeks after announcing it. Although, the report says a Boeing spokesperson replied,

"We communicate regularly with all our customers. Our delivery commitments and customer expectations have not changed."

China Southern excluded the MAX from its forecast but said nothing about canceling orders. If the MAX was omitted from the forecast because of "uncertainty around deliveries," Boeing should quickly address that with China Southern.

Is this a 737 MAX safety issue or a negotiation tactic?

Boeing has around 140 B737 MAX aircraft awaiting delivery to Chinese customers, but with bicycles barely moving in China, it's unlikely many of those will move anytime soon. China Southern has close to 30% of its fleet on the inactive list, so it won't be in a rush to add more to its parking lot.

This seems to be the issue in China where the 737 MAX is concerned. In December 2021, the Civil Aviation Authority of China (CAAC) issued an airworthiness directive advising that when all the hardware and software changes are applied and pilots retrained on the updated systems, the 737 MAX can return to flying. In January, China Southern completed a three and a half-hour test flight with one of its twenty-four 737 MAXs.

If that flight satisfied CAAC, China Southern and Boeing, there should be no reason why the MAX is not reintroduced in China. If it wasn't a success, Boeing needs to find out why, address any issues, and lean on the airline to accept the already built planes. The 737 MAX has successfully returned to service virtually everywhere except China. It's performing well and is an essential cog in getting aviation up and running again.

Are the China Southern's chairman's comments just another poke at Boeing, a negotiating tactic or a sign that it will be some time before the B737 MAX returns to Chinese skies?

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Source: Bloomberg