In its latest Commercial Market Outlook, Boeing forecasted that the world's in-service commercial fleet would nearly double over the next 20 years. It said that the fleet would grow from 25,900 aircraft in 2019 to 47,080 by 2041, creating a demand for 41,170 new aircraft in that period.

China will account for 21% of new deliveries

Boeing says that by 2041, approximately 42% of new aircraft deliveries will be to airlines based in Asia-Pacific, with China accounting for half of those. North America will account for 23%, Europe 21%, the Middle East 7%, Latin America 5%, and Africa 2%.

Single-aisle aircraft will be most in demand, with 30,880 needed, accounting for around 75% of new deliveries. The demand for widebodies will be 7,230 aircraft. For regional jets, it will be 2,120, Additionally, 940 freighters will be needed.

Today, Boeing announced its 2022 outlook for China, which also predicted a more than doubling of the commercial fleet over the next 20 years. Boeing says that despite the short-term impacts of the pandemic, the demand for air travel and air freight will continue to trend upwards through 2041.

To meet that demand, the Chinese fleet will grow from around 3,900 to more than 9,600 airplanes through 2041. Accounting for all the machinations of replacement aircraft, Boeing forecasts China will need 8,485 new aircraft, valued at $1.5 trillion, or a fifth of global deliveries over the next two decades.

Boeing says a key element in driving demand for new aircraft will be the need to replace older planes with more fuel-efficient new-generation types, such as the 737 MAX, 777X, and 787.

Get the latest aviation news straight to your inbox: Sign up for our newsletters today.

What about the shocks that will come along?

It seems surreal that forecasts like these are made that assume everything will continue along a straight, upwards line when we are just coming out of the pandemic. Particularly when they concern China, which is pretty much the last nation on the planet to open up its borders and allow the free movement of people.

Boeing vice president Commercial Sales and Marketing, Greater China is Peter Gao, and he has no such qualms about any potential shocks along the way to 2041, saying,

"We have full confidence that China's commercial aviation market will continue to prosper, despite recent economic headwinds, as Beoing clebrates its 50th anniversary in the country. China's economic fundamentals will continue to fuel the significant demand for both its passenger and cargo fleets."

Describing the economic devastation of COVID-19 as headwinds seems a very optimistic spin on what the aviation industry has endured for the last few years. Battling headwinds seems a more apt description for the Air New Zealand 787 Dreamliner trying to get from New York to Auckland without stopping than it does to the combined effects of the pandemic, the Ukraine conflict, and rampant inflation.

Of course, Boeing base these forecasts around all manner of assumptions and projections, which for China they list as:

• Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 4.9% annually.
• 1,570 widebody airplanes and 6,370 single-aisle airplanes will be needed to support a growing network of international and domestic routes.
• Demand for commercial services to support the rapid and healthy growth of the fleet will be worth $545 billion.
• The Freighter segment will see 205 deliveries to meet the requirements of continued e-commerce growth and a strong industrial supply chain.
• The country will also require 412,000 new aviation personnel, including 126,000 pilots, 124,000 technicians, and 162,000 cabin crew members in the next 20 years.

The 8,485 airplanes that Boeing forecasts will be needed in China, include 6,370 single aisle, 1,570 widebodies, 340 regional jets, and 205 freighters.

Discover more aviation news here

This year marks the 50th year Boeing has been operating in China. It started in 1972 with an order for ten 707s, and today more than 2,000 Boeing aircraft have been delivered to China.

What do you think about the value of these long-range, straight-line forecasts? Do they mean anything?

• 

  Boeing

  Stock Code:

  BA

  Date Founded:

  1916-07-15

  CEO:

  Dave Calhoun

  Headquarters Location:

  Chicago, USA

  Key Product Lines:

  Boeing 737, Boeing 747, Boeing 757, Boeing 767, Boeing 777, Boeing 787

  Business Type:

  Planemaker