Breeze Airways has applied to operate internationally. According to its submission to the Department of Transportation, it seeks to operate weekly from Los Angeles International to Los Cabos using the 137-seat A220-300. Given Breeze focuses on unserved and underserved routes; this one doesn't fit the bill.
Likely, it is simply using it to gain permission, hiding its real plan for competitive reasons. After all, why forewarn competitors when you don't have to? Once approved, it will likely file an update saying, 'we will fly here now' under the US-Mexico air service agreement. Nonetheless, it is worth seeing what it has said.
Los Angeles to Los Cabos
Based on Breeze's DOT submission, which may be different from what it ultimately operates, it has specified a weekly service from Los Angeles to Los Cabos, 911 miles (1,466 km) apart. It says a year-round service will operate, with 7,124 seats for sale (each way), as shown below. It expects to carry 5,720 passengers (each way) for an annual average seat load factor of 80.3%. It is the same if traffic (RPM) is divided by capacity (ASM).
In the first year, it says it would achieve total revenue (fare and ancillary) of $755,040, although this is unlikely to be accurate as it is based on a simple $6,000 per block hour. Still, it is $132 per passenger (each way) when split over 5,720 passengers. That is across all cabins and before taxes are added.
Given a big loss in the first three months, mainly because of one-off startup expenses, it projects an annual loss of $82,253 in the first year. All routes take time to develop, and sales within the first 24-48 hours of a route opening for sale is usually a good sign of whether it will do well.
A look at Los Angeles-Los Cabos
According to the latest OAG data based on what airlines submit, six airlines plan Los Angeles-Los Cabos flights this November. Alaska Airlines has 16 to 18 weekly flights, then American (8), Delta (daily to 8 weekly), JetBlue (daily), United (daily), and Spirit (daily).
With six to nine daily departures and up to 1,543 one-way seats to fill, it is far from underserved in an absolute sense and highly different from Breeze's other routes. And that is before considering Breeze's minuscule weekly frequency (assuming that reflects its intention).
Click here for Los Angeles-Los Cabos flights.
Where, then?
Could Breeze fly internationally from San Bernardino, which has US customs? Last August, Breeze became the first scheduled passenger airline to serve the airport in many, many years. Or from Provo, subject to US customs, at which it bases an aircraft?
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Or perhaps it will not be from the West Coast at all. Based on Breeze's top two airports (Charleston and Hartford), Charleston had more than 22,000 roundtrip Cancun passengers last year, yet is unserved. JetBlue ended Hartford-Cancun, which had ~76,000 passengers last year. When considered like this, there are dozens of attractive leisure-driven international opportunities from Breeze's leading airports.
It seems unlikely that Breeze will operate Los Angeles-Los Cabos, raising questions about where it might fly. Where would you like it to fly internationally? Let us know in the comments.