One Month In: How Breeze Airways Is Becoming Established

It is just over one month since Breeze Airways took to the skies on its first scheduled departure. On May 27th, flight MX4 departed Charleston on a 370-mile service to Tampa. The latest route to begin, from Tampa to Akron Canton, took off on June 26th, using N192BZ, a 118-seat Embraer 195.

Breeze Airways innaugual
It has been over a month since Breeze Airways took off. Photo: Tampa International Airport.

Previous analysis by us found that Breeze’s initial routes – all 39 of them – have an average distance of 604 miles and four-weekly services. Only eight routes – one in five – have head-to-head competition. In 2019, the 39 routes had an average of 29,000 passengers; Breeze will grow demand by non-stop service, a good product, and lower fares.

One Month In: How Breeze Airways Is Becoming Established
Akron Canton to Tampa began on June 26th on a once-weekly basis. What a fantastic cake to commemorate service! Photo: Akron Canton Airport.

Where is Breeze flying?

Breeze’s initial routes are shown in the following map. At the time of writing, no additional services have been added, and probably won’t be until these have been bedded in. There is currently no publicly available statistics that show how particular routes are doing, but they will be available in the coming months.

One Month In: How Breeze Airways Is Becoming Established
In the first week of August, these 39 routes have 288 round-trip flights. Image: GCMap.

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Almost all flying is done on four days

Breeze was very clear from the outset. It would only be flying on days that have more demand, therefore meaning it would not have to discount fares even more than necessary to grow demand. This is enabled by its aircraft, which trade-off lower ownership cost for higher fuel burn and maintenance.

Indeed, examining OAG data shows that its early August flights are almost fully on Mondays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays. This corresponds to what ultra-low-cost-carrier Allegiant said in its November 2019 investor relations document: “All days of the week are not created equal. Sundays are good, Tuesdays are bad, and Saturdays are good and bad.”

One Month In: How Breeze Airways Is Becoming Established
97% of flying is on four days of the week. Image: Simple Flying using data from OAG.

Where could be next?

Breeze’s initial network comprises 16 airports, a huge number. And it immediately began to ‘connect the dots’, normally a crucial requirement to gain various economies. It will absolutely be adding lots more airports, while importantly further growing existing airports in its network. It will be important to keep the competition guessing by not making it too predictable.

One Month In: How Breeze Airways Is Becoming Established
Breeze aircraft often fly six sectors a day. On June 27th, this Embraer 195 flew Tampa-Norfolk-Charleston-Norfolk-Tampa-Northwest Arkansas-Tampa. Photo: Tampa International Airport.

Savannah seems a logical addition

Savannah seems a logical addition at some point in the future given it is very leisure-driven and woefully underserved by non-stops. In 2019, over half of the Georgia airport’s domestic passengers flew via a hub, with over 1.4 million people doing so, based on booking data obtained through OAG Traffic Analyzer. These examples are all unserved, except where stated:

  • Hartford: 24,000 round-trip passengers
  • Kansas City: 21,000
  • New Orleans: 21,000
  • Austin: 20,000
  • San Antonio: 19,000
  • Providence: 19,000
  • Columbus (John Glen): 18,000
  • Buffalo: 17,000
  • Tampa: 17,000 (now served by Silver Airways with 46-seat ATR-42-600s)
  • Norfolk: 15,000
  • Richmond: 14,000
  • Raleigh Durham: 14,000
  • Orlando: 12,000
  • Birmingham: 11,000
  • Akron Canton: 7,000
  • Huntsville: 7,000

Where do you think will be next for Breeze? Let us know in the comments.