A recent statistical analysis has revealed that flight bookings across China have surged up by 15 times after the government relaxed quarantine rules. Until yesterday, Chinese capital had put in place strict COVID-19 preventive measures, including a 14-day mandatory quarantine for incoming international passengers. The restrictions have finally been lifted, as China has got a hold on the spread of the pandemic.

However, this trend might also be due to the upcoming Labour Day holidays in China. Starting tomorrow, Chinese people will, for the first time since January, be able to travel without restrictions. Aviation analysts are hopeful that this might be the starting point for the recovery of Chinese tourism and the airline industry.

A road to recovery

China was the first country to be affected by the spread of the coronavirus. Evidently, the second-largest aviation industry in the world had taken a severe hit. Since the late-January, the Chinese government had ordered travel restrictions to curb the spread of disease. These included a complete ban on flights from hotspots like Wuhan and limited seat allowance to airlines on the international sector.

As a result of this, nearly two-thirds of domestic flights across China were canceled in February. For a market like China, this accumulated to around 10,000 canceled flights per day. Consequently, flight prices dropped to unprecedented levels. For example, a seat on a three-hour flight came down to just 29 Yuan (US$4.1).

Moreover, almost 70% of international flights were canceled in total, with the US-China market seeing the biggest reduction by 86%. By the end of February, the Chinese aviation industry started seeing positive signs. However, the growth was recovering gradually and minimally. As compared to the previous month, daily flights in March only grew by 20%.

Despite the increase in the number of flights, passenger numbers were not increasing as expected. Most of the air travel in March and April was specifically by laborers living in the northwest and southwest of China. Since the Chinese airline industry is very tourism-dependent, it was clear that the revival won't be possible without tourists.

Positive signs

By the end of April, the number of daily flights has improved to 42% of the pre-epidemic level. However, with the upcoming holidays, a spurt in travel demand is going to be observed.

The Ministry of Transport has expected 117 million tourists to travel by road, rail, and air during the holidays that start tomorrow. Although the numbers are just one-third of what they were last year, it is expected that the period will help in the growth of flight demand and building of passenger confidence.

As the graph above suggests, the airline industry has seen positive growth for the first time in the last two months. This trend is mostly due to increased air travel in Asia-pacific post the upliftment of restrictions in China and South Korea. Although full recovery may not happen until 2023, these might be the beginning stages of a long and optimistic process.

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