Emerald Airlines – operating for Aer Lingus Regional – opened its Belfast City base on March 24th, less than a month after it put its routes on sale. It initially has one link to Birmingham but will gradually increase to six over the coming weeks.

Emerald's interest in Belfast was driven by the end of Stobart Air, which also operated for Aer Lingus Regional. Stobart served Belfast's downtown airport because of the end of the original Flybe, which had a profound impact on the airport. However, Emerald will inhabit a much more competitive world than might have been hoped.

Five of its six routes will compete with the new Flybe, along with a larger-than-normal amount of flights by easyJet – in response to Flybe's end – at Belfast International. It means that consumers should benefit from lower fares and more choice. However, flight reductions are highly likely to achieve better yields, especially in the current climate with lagging business demand.

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Emerald begins Belfast base

Emerald's Belfast City network is as follows, ordered by start date. All routes utilize 70-seat ATR-72-600s. With the call sign 'Gemstone Six-Four Bravo Hotel', the first rotation to Birmingham deployed EI-GPP. This aircraft was delivered to the original Flybe in April 2016 and registered G-FBXE.

1. Birmingham: already operating; 1x daily in the current week
2. Edinburgh: March 27th, 1x daily in the week it begins (replacing Aer Lingus itself)
3. Leeds Bradford: March 27th, 6x weekly
4. Manchester: March 27th, 1x daily
5. Exeter: May 8th, 4x weekly
6. Glasgow: May 8th, 1x daily

Big competition for Emerald and Flybe

The new Flybe will begin serving Belfast City on April 13th, with its operation at the airport ramping up across the summer. Eventually, Emerald and Flybe will compete head-to-head on five routes from the airport.

As both carriers will gradually increase flights, the following details the competitive situation in the week beginning Sunday, October 23rd, the last week of the aviation summer season. Changes may occur as it's so far away, but all flights listed are bookable when writing. Note: it's highly likely that Emerald will be increasing flights as it bases more aircraft at Belfast City.

1. Birmingham: Emerald 20 weekly departures, Flybe 23
2. Edinburgh: Emerald 13, Flybe 19
3. Leeds Bradford: Emerald 13, Flybe 19
4. Manchester: Emerald 19, Flybe 25
5. Glasgow: Emerald 7, Flybe 23

Based on these five routes, Emerald will have 72 weekly departures, while Flybe will have 109 – or 51% more. As Flybe will use 78-seat Q400s rather than 70-seat ATR-72s, it'll have 69% more weekly seats for sale. (The ATR-72 is much more cost-efficient on short legs than the much faster Q400.)

Flybe will have a higher frequency on all routes, which is usually preferable for business travelers. The gap is especially notable to Glasgow. In the current environment, will more flights help in the competitive battle or be a higher risk with more seats to sell or to discount to help increase seat load factor?

What about Belfast as a whole?

For a fuller picture, it's good to examine Belfast City and Belfast International (easyJet). Across the above five routes, Belfast will have 288 weekly departures in late October (41 daily). That's up from 255 (36 daily) in the same week in pre-pandemic October 2019.

Departures have grown by 13%. That'd be reasonable at any time, but it is excessive in the current environment, especially with business demand lagging. Belfast never had it so well, but it is unlikely to be sustainable. On three routes, easyJet has more flights (and obviously many more seats) than Emerald and Flybe.

As the following shows, Leeds Bradford remains the least served, as you'd expect. However, departures have risen by 42%, with Flybe (19 weekly), Emerald (13), and easyJet (just 2) all operating. Belfast-Leeds will now have six departures on Fridays and Sundays, a figure not seen for nine years when Flybe and Jet2 operated the city-pair.

What do you make of it all? Let us know in the comments.