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Speaking at the Berlin Air Show, Tim Clark, Emirates' president, said that the airline is considering fifth freedom flights from Germany to the USA. It has history: it flew Dubai-Hamburg-New York JFK until early 2008. Now it flies Dubai-Milan-JFK. But as it was mentioned in the context of receiving no traffic rights for Dubai-Berlin, might Clark simply be posturing?
No Berlin traffic rights, so...
Emirates remains steadfast in its desire to serve Berlin. It's not hard to understand why. Despite no non-stop service, booking data shows that over 70,000 roundtrip passengers flew indirectly between Dubai and the German capital in 2019. It means that Berlin was the largest unserved market in Europe.
If those traveling from Berlin to Asia-Pacific, Southern and Eastern Africa, and the wider Middle East are added, it had over 2.5 million. If it could, Emirates would serve Berlin at least 2x daily, but it can't. That's due to a lack of air traffic rights, which limits the carrier to four cities in Germany, which it already uses.
To serve Berlin, it'd have to give up one of the four, which it has refused to do. Or, much more preferably for Emirates, it hopes to convince the German Government to loosen market access, which it has refused to do, mainly, according to Clark, because of Lufthansa's lobbying. The stalemate means Emirates is unable to expand in Germany by adding more cities.
In response, and in what could simply be a negotiating tactic, Clark has suggested that it may once again fly from Germany to the US on a fifth freedom basis. This could be from Düsseldorf, Frankfurt (Lufthansa's main hub), Hamburg, or Munich (Lufthansa's second-largest hub).
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Emirates serves four German airports
Emirates has served Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Hamburg, and Munich for many years. The most recent route to start was Hamburg, which took off on a 1x daily basis 16 years ago in March 2006. It quickly rose to 2x daily from adding a supplementary Dubai-Hamburg-JFK service, although JFK didn't last long.
In the week starting June 24th, 2022, Emirates' German network is as follows. It has 5x daily flights, half of what it had in the same week in 2019. Cirium shows that it has lost five daily flights and 2,258 seats each way every day. However, flights and capacity increase again from July, albeit still well under previous levels.
- Dubai to Düsseldorf: 1x daily A380; down from 2x daily A380
- Dubai to Frankfurt: 2x daily (1x A380, 1x B777-300ER); down from 3x daily (2x A380, 1x B777-300ER)
- Dubai to Hamburg: 1x daily A380; down from 2x daily (1x A380, 1x B777-300ER)
- Dubai to Munich: 1x daily A380; down from 3x daily (2x A380, 1x B777-300ER
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A look at its Hamburg-JFK operation
Emirates flew Dubai-Hamburg-JFK and back between October 2006 and March 2008. Operating 1x daily, EK205 left Dubai at 08:55 and arrived in Hamburg at 12:55. After 1h 45m on the ground, it left at 14:40 and arrived in JFK at 17:30.
Returning, EK206 departed at 23:15, arrived in Hamburg the following morning at 12:05, left at 13:45, and arrived back at 23:25. It was designed to feed and to be fed by Emirates' peak flight waves to/from Asia-Pacific.
Department of Transportation data shows that Emirates had an average seat load factor of just 58% on Hamburg-JFK-Hamburg. This adds weight to the short duration of the route and that it ended for "economic reasons."
Multiple airlines on Hamburg-New York
Many airlines have tried Hamburg-New York route over the years. For example, Lufthansa served Newark (March 1990-October 1992), followed by Continental (from June 2005) and thereafter United (until October 2018). Meanwhile, JFK saw LTU (May 1990-October 1990), Pan Am (until October 1991), Delta (November 1991-October 1995), and then Emirates 11 years later.
While booking data indicates that Hamburg-New York is the largest unserved market between Europe and New York, it hasn't had non-stop service since 2008. The problem isn't traffic: about 119,000 flew indirectly in 2019. Instead, it is partly because it is dominated by Lufthansa and wider Star Alliance (~60% of passengers) and, more importantly, because fares aren't great, with an average one-way fare of $408 (excluding any fuel surcharge). That's even less than Shannon-New York, despite Hamburg covering a quarter more miles.
Do you think Emirates will operate Germany-US again? If so, what routing would you like to see? Given its ongoing spat with Lufthansa, it'd be extra fun if it was from Frankfurt or Munich. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.