According to the latest numbers from multiple sources, European aviation has now recovered by around 50% since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of falling case numbers, tied with rising vaccination rates, travel between nations is reopening, allowing airlines to recover.
Today marks the launch of the EU's Digital COVID-19 verification system. The system is designed to enable freedom of movement for those vaccinated, with antibodies, or testing negative for COVID-19. The move should hopefully provide a boost to already increasing flight numbers across the European Union.
Recovery by half
According to an analysis by CAPA, the number of weekly seats available on intra-EU flights has climbed above 50% of its pre-pandemic figure for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the publication, Europe's airlines offered 19.7 million seats last week, down 46% from 36.8 million in the same week of 2019.
The data seems to be echoed by similar data from RadarBox.com. According to the website, this week, the seven-day average of EU-EU flights was 12,871. This is an increase of 67.63% from the 7,678 flights in 2020. However, in line with CAPA's data, the recorded flight numbers have recovered by more than 50%. In 2019, the seven-day average was 25,093, meaning that flights are down 48.71% on the last pre-pandemic year.
How is the situation developing on the continent?
According to data from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported each day has generally been falling from almost 200,000 in early April to just 7,513 cases on June 26th. Across the EU, the average seven-day incidence rate per 100,000 people currently sits at 21.67.
While it is over 100 in Cyprus (135.47) and Portugal (101.38), 19 nations have an incidence below the average from a total of30 countries. Across the entire EU, 60.6% of adults 18+ have now received their first COVID-19 vaccine dose, with 38.9 being fully vaccinated.
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What does the future hold?
This is always a tricky question without a crystal ball. But we can take a look at predictions and current data. Let's start with the number of flights scheduled in the EU. According to data from aviation data experts Ciruim, roughly 500,000 flights are planned for July, down from 758,483 in July 2019. This is higher than the slight recovery experienced last year.
Airlines are currently banking on experiencing November 2019 flight levels in August, with numbers remaining slightly below 2019 levels for the remainder of the year. Of course, it is easy for airlines to remove capacity if demand doesn't return as expected.
According to The Local in Germany, the Delta variant is soon expected to make up 50% of all COVID-19 cases in Germany. The variant has been behind a surge of cases in the United Kingdom. In a separate article, the publication cited the country's Health Minister, Jens Spahn, as warning that complacency could lead to a fourth wave.
What do you make of Europe's aviation recovery so far? Let us know what you think and why in the comments below!