Frontier's first A321neo will enter revenue-generating service from Denver to San Francisco and Ontario, Flightradar24 shows. The ULCC received its initial 240-seat A321neo, registered N603FR, on October 12th. It flew from Tampa to Denver that day, where it awaits its first commercial flight.

The first flights

On October 14th, Frontier will deploy N603FR to San Francisco (SFO) and Ontario (ONT), according to the latest information from Flightradar24, as summarized below. There is a chance it'll change, but it probably won't. It will cover 3,571 miles (5,748km) on that first day:

  1. Denver to San Francisco: F9669, 08:31-10:23
  2. San Francisco to Denver: F9672, 11:23-15:04
  3. Denver to Ontario: F9975, 16:44-18:09
  4. Ontario to Denver: F9976, 19:04-22:27
Frontier's first A321neo commercial routes
Image: GCMap.

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29% more seats for sale

Shifting those four flights from 186-seat A320neos to 240-seat A321neo means a 29% increase in seats for sale. Across the first day, they'll have 960 seats, up from 744 the day before, with an extra 216 to sell.

There's a much greater revenue opportunity, not just in terms of the actual number of seats, which will be filled partly from both lower fares, enabled by the A321neo's lower seat-mile costs, which will grow demand, but also because the markets are large already.

Based on 2019 data, the US Department of Transportation shows that all carriers on Denver-San Francisco carried 1,844,382 roundtrip passengers, reducing to 665,979 in 2020 and 990,606 last year. And Denver-Ontario had 494,138 in 2019, 299,586 in 2020, and 478,133 last year. They're also competitive, with three carriers on each.

The higher passenger volume also means Frontier can benefit from more all-important ancillary sales (bags, food, etc.), growing total sector revenue. The rise will also contribute to lower fares, which in turn will spur demand, increasing passenger volume, counterbalancing fare revenue, and further growing ancillary sales. It is a cycle effect.

Frontier fleet development
Image: Frontier Airlines.

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Where else will the A321neo fly?

Curiously, when writing on October 13th, Frontier has only filed A321neo schedules from January onwards, so it's not yet known exactly where else the type will fly before then. This will be known soon. For now, OAG indicates that it will operate the following routes next year:

  1. Chicago O'Hare to Cancún: 1x daily A321neo from January 10th
  2. Chicago O'Hare to Orlando: 1x daily from January 10th
  3. Las Vegas to Miami: 1x daily from January 10th
  4. Miami to Philadelphia: 5x weekly from January 12th (1x daily from mid-February)
  5. Atlanta to Cancún: 1x daily from February 16th
  6. Atlanta to Philadelphia: 1x daily from February 16th (the other direction from January 12th)
  7. Orlando to San Juan: 1x daily from February 16th
  8. Raleigh Durham to San Juan: 1x daily from February 16th
  9. St Louis to Cancún: 5x weekly (1x daily from early March)
  10. St Louis to Las Vegas: 5x weekly (1x daily from early March)
  11. Philadelphia to Cancún: 1x daily January 10th-February 15th
  12. Atlanta to Miami: 5x weekly January 12th-February 13th (no flights in the other direction)
  13. Chicago O'Hare to Las Vegas: February 19th, 26th, March 5th
  14. Las Vegas to Milwaukee: February 19th, 26th, March 5th

Much competition

Frontier will often deploy the A321neo at big and busy airports, along with higher demanded winter-seasonal leisure markets, both benefiting from the extra capacity. They'll also be used where it needs a more significant cost advantage from multiple competitors, a huge dominant operator at a hub, or from much competition. In other words, the type will be used flexibly.

The amount and nature of competition is important too. Across all 14 routes, there's an average of nearly three head-to-head competitors. The only route with none is Raleigh Durham to Cancún, on which Frontier has been the sole operator after JetBlue ended it in January. Of the 14 routes, Frontier will face Spirit on 11, Southwest on nine, and both Spirit and Southwest on eight.

What do you make of it all? Let us know in the comments.