Before June 2021, there had never been a scheduled Ryanair flight in the capital of Croatia, Zagreb. Fast forward just a few months and Ryanair now has a staggering 27 routes from this city. Next week Monday, Simple Flying will take a look at how Ryanair expanded in Zagreb and what impact each of the new route launches has had on other airlines. In this article, we take a look at one route launch that was particularly interesting. This is the route from Dublin to Zagreb.

Zagreb – Dublin is different to other routes

Back in February 2021, we wrote about Zagreb Airport deciding to offer Passenger Service Charge discounts of as much as 80% to airlines that launch new routes out of the airport. Zagreb decided to do this in 2021 after suffering a fall in passenger figures of 81% in 2020.

As a result of the incentives program, Ryanair arrived in Zagreb for the first time ever in June 2021. By the middle of December 2021, it was already operating a staggering 24 routes out of Zagreb. It has already announced a further three routes launching in 2022.

Out of all these routes, one is unique: Zagreb – Dublin. This route is the only one for which Ryanair did not qualify for the incentives scheme offered by Zagreb Airport. It is also the only one on which Ryanair routinely avoids selling tickets at promotional prices like it does on other routes. Some destinations, like Bratislava, Milan Bergamo, Weeze, and Brindisi, routinely sell for less than 10 euros ($11). Dublin never sells for less than 20 euros ($21).

Ryanair’s risk in launching this route appears to have paid off. The airline is gradually edging Croatia Airlines out of the market.

Why Ryanair is more competitive

Croatia Airlines has been flying to Dublin twice weekly since 3rd May 2018 with an Airbus A319 aircraft, launching the route in response to a growing Croatian diaspora in Ireland.

The airline held a monopoly on this route until Ryanair launched its own Zagreb – Dublin flights on 2nd December 2021. Ryanair has been flying three times weekly ever since it launched the route. It also offered four weekly flights in March when it had a spare aircraft based in Dublin.

Ryanair’s arrival has left Croatia Airlines struggling to compete on this route for three reasons:

• Lower frequency when the two airlines started going head-to-head (twice weekly for Croatia Airlines against thrice weekly for Ryanair) meant passengers had more flexibility of travel with Ryanair than they did with Croatia Airlines
• Much higher tickets prices for Croatia Airlines than Ryanair because the Croatian flag carrier does not have the economies of scale that Ryanair does. An example is below.
• A negligible difference in the basic product, with Croatia Airlines and Ryanair both charging for checked baggage, both only offering one bag on board, and both charging for seat selection. Croatia Airlines’ complimentary meal on board has also been drastically reduced during COVID-19 and is now just a snack.
• The long rotation time between Zagreb and Dublin (an average flight time of almost two and a half hours) meant Croatia Airlines could not scheduled its Dublin flights to connect onto almost any of its regional flights, and so it offers very little transfer potential on the route. This effectively turned it into a point-to-point competitior against Ryanair.

An example of the ticket price difference is this Sunday, which is the day of the next flight for both airlines. Ryanair is selling the Zagreb - Dublin flight for 174 euros ($189) while Croatia Airlines' flight is 207 ($225) euros. The lowest that this Croatia Airlines flight was ever selling for was 22 days ago, for 185 euros ($200). Meanwhile, Ryanair's flight was selling for as low as 45 euros ($49) 17 days ago.

Croatia Airlines does have some advantages over Ryanair on this route, like a codeshare partnership with United Airlines as well as the ability to accrue and redeem miles as a Star Alliance member. It also offers a Business Class which Ryanair does not and it still offers a small complimentary service on board. Nevertheless, the price difference is vast.

Croatia Airlines is gradually withdrawing

For all these reasons, Croatia Airlines is presently struggling to compete with Ryanair on this route, and so Ryanair is slowly capturing the market. After Ryanair innaugurated its first Zagreb - Dublin flight in December 2021, Croatia Airlines temporarily discontinued the route in January 2022. It did not resume flying to Dublin until 31 March.

Furthermore, last week Croatia Airlines announced it would withdraw from the route completely between 10 June and 26 September. It will be flying Split – Dublin – Split as opposed to Zagreb – Dublin – Zagreb during this time. This is part of a wider shceduling change that the airline is doing this summer, shifting capacity away from Zagreb and moving it to Croatia's coastal airports.

Croatia Airlines has also cancelled selected flights on the route in April and May, decreasing frequencies from three weekly to two weekly for a whole half of both of these months.

Croatia Airlines’ flights from Zagreb to Dublin are currently on sale in April, May, the beginning of June, the end of September, and then October onwards. It remains to be seen if the airline will sustain the route as a year-round operation in the winter 2022/2023 timetable given the pressure that it is under ever since Ryanair's arrival. Despite dropping prices for its Dublin flights, Croatia Airlines remains a much more expensive option.

It will also be interesting to see what new moves Ryanair will make on this route in the near future, and whether it will add more capacity to capture even more of the market.

How do you think Croatia Airlines should compete against Ryanair on the Zagreb - Dublin route? Do you think the airline is right to shift capacity to the Croatian coast during the peak summer months and completely leave the market to Ryanair? Let us know what you think of the two airlines' strategies in the comments below.