All 193 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) members have pledged to support the long-term aviation goal (LTAG) of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 as the 41st Assembly comes to a close.The announcement comes after several years of planning and preparations following the historic Paris Agreement in 2015, with the United Nations agency developing the framework for the target in July.

New developments

Sustainability has been the primary focus of the Assembly, with the LTAG adopted by the Internation Air Transport Association (IATA) in October 2021. However, ICAO support has emphasized the importance of changes required by governments to back sustainable aviation.

It is a significant step up from ICAO’s previous climate goal of carbon-neutral growth from 2020 and a 2% annual improvement in fuel efficiency through 2050, set during the 37th Assembly in 2010.

“States’ adoption of this new long term goal for decarbonized air transport, following the similar commitments from industry groups, will contribute importantly to the green innovation and implementation momentum which must be accelerated over the coming decades to ultimately achieve emissions free powered flight,” said ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano.

“Countries have achieved some tremendous and very important diplomatic progress at this event, and on topics of crucial importance to the future sustainability of our planet and the air transport system which serves and connects its populations,” added ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar.

While all 193 states have accepted the goal, it is ultimately non-binding due to IACO’s non-regulatory role, requiring countries to uphold the pledge and govern emissions.

Achieving net-zero

Net-zero carbon emissions have become a hot topic across the aviation industry in recent years, with an expansive list of airlines and countries pledging towards various goals to curb pollution levels, increasing pressure on IACO to act.

The aviation industry currently contributes to around 2.4% of global emissions from fossil fuel use, according to research by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).

Achievement of net-zero emissions relies on several CO2 reduction methods, including developing and implementing innovative technologies and further investment in sustainable aviation fuels (SAF).

SAFs have seen a surge in interest with airlines, growing from use on just 500 flights a year in 2016 to almost 450,000 in 2021. IATA guidance estimates that SAFs could contribute around 65% of the reduction in emissions required to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

Fuel tankering
By 2025 around one million flights per year are expected to be powered by Sustainable Aviation Fuels, compared to just 500 in 2016. Photo: Tom Boon | Simple Flying

The liquid fuel is produced using waste oils, fats, non-food crops, and synthetic materials. Its sustainable nature comes from the use of feedstocks that do not impact forest degradation, food, or water supplies.

Through the lifecycle of the fuel’s biogenic feedstocks, carbon emissions are reabsorbed through the plants, reducing aviation emissions by up to 80%.

The Clean Air Task Force (CATF) has disputed the sustainable nature of biogenic fuels, finding in a recent study that large-scale production of SAFs could drive up demand for non-food crops, requiring farmers to expand their current farmland. CATF notes that further research and funding is needed to meet the projected global demand for sustainable fuels.

IATA advises that further advancements are not anticipated until international policy is more comprehensive, likely in the 2030s, though consider it feasible for almost all fossil fuels used within the aviation industry to be replaced with SAFs by 2050.

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Changes for CORSIA

ICAO members have emphasized the importance of secure funding and investments towards emission reduction measures, including support for its Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA), which underwent its first review during the Assembly.

Currently in its “pilot stage,” 118 member states have volunteered to participate in CORSIA starting January 2023, to harmonize international goals to offset carbon emissions while respecting countries varying limitations. CORSIA will only apply to international flights between member states that have volunteered for the program during its early phase.

CORSIA is expected to aid towards mid-term carbon-neutral goals, offsetting 164 million tonnes of CO2 each year for a total of 2.5 billion tonnes between 2021 and 2035.

From 2024 onwards, CORSIA’s baseline growth will be upped to 85% of 2019’s carbon emission levels, as opposed to the average 2019-2020, with revised percentages based on current developments to be used to calculate offsetting requirements from 2030.

“Empty goals”

Despite general support, ICAO’s pledge has received criticism from groups and members hoping for a more ambitious goal, with several European countries describing it as a compromise to The Guardian.

China, Russia, and Eritrea were notable opponents to the net-zero goals, with China expressing concerns that carbon-neutral growth from 2020 would negatively impact developing countries, adding that developed countries have an international obligation to provide financial, technical, and capacity assistance to developing countries to meet these goals.

An Aeroflot - Russian Airlines Airbus A320 aircraft as seen on final approach flying and landing on the runway at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport
Photo: Getty Images.

Russia presented a similar view, noting uncertainty at the feasibility of increasing SAF production and its impact on price reduction, proposing further study towards ICAO’s LTAG.

Brussels-based NGO Transport and Environment have questioned how the ICAO will reach its targets, slamming the outcome as “empty” and “disappointing.”

The group notes that less than a third of emissions will be addressed by 2030, with significant polluters China, Russia, Brazil, and India not participating in CORSIA. The 85% baseline for CORSIA is set to only tackle 22% of international emissions, with the offset so low it provides no incentives to decarbonize the industry.

“This is not the aviation’s Paris agreement moment. Let’s not pretend that a non-binding goal will get aviation down to zero,” stressed the group’s aviation director Jo Dardenne.

“If countries and industry are serious about this aspirational goal, they should stop bullying the EU out of its plans to finally price emissions from departing flights. The EU should not wait for more empty promises to move ahead with its SAF mandate and pricing of departing flights.”

What are your thoughts on IACO’s net-zero pledge? Should governments be doing more to support sustainable aviation goals? Let us know in the comments.

Sources: The Guardian, ICAO, IATA, ICCT, Clean Air Task Force, Transport and Environment