The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) forecasted on Wednesday that air passenger demand in 2023 will recover above pre-pandemic levels due to the strong momentum last year.

Back to growth?

Air passenger demand in 2023 will rapidly recover to pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the first quarter, said ICAO. Moreover, demand will close the year with a growth of around 3% on 2019 figures by the end of the year. These are great news for the airline industry, which has been battling with the COVID-19 pandemic and a complex economic environment in the last three years.

Juan Carlos Salazar, ICAO Secretary General, said, “the air passenger forecasts ICAO is announcing today build on the strong momentum toward recovery in 2022, as previously assessed by ICAO statistical analysis.”

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The Latin American region, guided by countries like Mexico, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic, led the capacity recovery globally last year. According to stats published by ICAO, it was the only region with a higher seat capacity and passenger numbers in 2022 versus pre-pandemic levels. On the other hand, the Asia-Pacific region was left behind.

The number of air passengers in 2022 globally increased by an estimated 47% compared to 2021, said ICAO. Overall, total world passengers closed 28% below pre-pandemic numbers.

What about profitability?

While demand and passenger recoveries are good, airlines are also looking to resume their profitability levels to pre-COVID levels. The bottom lines of many airlines have been in red for the past few years. This has led to the cease of operations of several carriers globally, including Flybe (twice), Interjet, Flyr, Norwegian UK, Comair, ExpressJet Airlines, and more.

In terms of airlines’ annual passenger revenues, keeping yield and exchange rates at 2019 levels, ICAO observed an estimated 50% growth from 2021 to 2022. Looking further ahead, airlines are expected to return to operating profitability in the last quarter of 2023 after three consecutive years of losses.

An aircraft landing at dusk
Photo: Ian Schofield/Shutterstock.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) said that the industry left 2022 in far stronger shape than it entered. Throughout last year, most governments lifted COVID-19 travel restrictions, and people took advantage of the restoration of their freedom to travel, said Willie Walsh, IATA’s General Director. The airline association said this momentum is expected to continue in 2023, despite possible challenges.

IATA and ICAO are hopeful that the COVID-19 crisis is behind and the airline industry can focus again on the challenges ahead, such as reducing accident fatalities and the environmental impact. Willie Walsh said,

“Let us hope that 2022 becomes known as the year in which governments locked away forever the regulatory shackles that kept their citizens earthbound for so long. It is vital that governments learn the lesson that travel restrictions and border closures have little positive impact in terms of slowing the spread of infectious diseases in our globally inter-connected world.”

Juan Carlos Salazar added,

“Through ICAO, governments have reached agreements on goals toward zero accident fatalities by 2030 and zero carbon emissions by 2050 goals, and these will continue to play key roles in both guiding continued progress and in prioritizing ICAO’s implementation support initiatives.”

Do you expect airlines to resume growth in 2023, leaving behind the COVID-19 crisis? Let us know in the comments below.