Inside Flair: Canada's Fourth-Largest Airline

Flair has 397,000 seats for sale across over 2,000 flights in May, according to the latest data from OAG. Both surpass previous levels. It is betting big, with up to 50 aircraft expected by 2025, up from the current 12.

Flair has 12 B737s, nine MAX 8s and three -800s. It expects to reach 20 aircraft this summer. Photo: Flair Airlines.

Flair to be Canada's third-largest airline

Much has been made of Flair's recent focus on international service, including to Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Southern California. They'll be joined by Mexico, routes to Denver, Nashville, and San Francisco, and Chicago and New York JFK. It will have an intriguing and diverse mixture of fun-in-the-sun and big-city tourist destinations primarily aimed at outbound Canadian demand.

Yet the carrier remains resolutely domestic-focused, with 82% of seats for sale in May within the domestic market, OAG indicates. Air Canada and WestJet dominate the market with 77% of seats, with the duopoly ensuring high average fares. Normally this would result in large-scale LCC/ULCC competition, but Canada suffers from high costs, high taxation, and a typically strong response from incumbents. Nonetheless, change is afoot.

Flair's seats for sale_ January 2018 to May 2022 (1)

Red highlights January to May 2022. Source of data: OAG.

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Flair, WestJet's SWOOP, and startup Lynx Air are keen to disrupt things and to grow the markets. Lynx Air will compete head-to-head with Flair all on its initial seven routes, but ULCCs will have only a small presence in most markets. For example, analyzing OAG data shows that they'll have about 13% of May seats between Vancouver and Winnipeg, 8% on Calgary-Kelowna, and 7% between Toronto and Vancouver.

Flair has a 5.4% share of Canada's domestic market in May. Photo: Mackenzie Cole via Flickr.

Toronto is Flair's top airport

Some 30 airports will comprise Flair's May network, including 20 across Canada. With nearly four in ten seats for sale, Toronto Pearson is Flair's most-served airport, although it is closely followed by Edmonton and Vancouver. The strength of Toronto is largely because of having 18 routes, including once-daily flights on four core airport-pairs.

Of Canada's major cities, it is notable that Montréal is only Flair's 10th busiest airport, a position held jointly with Halifax. As Flair is so heavily dominated by the West – seven in ten seats are to/from Alberta and British Columbia – this shouldn't be too surprising, but it is intriguing. Montréal has four routes and Halifax has three.

Flair's route map in May 2022 as of February 4th. Image: GCMap.

71 routes in May

Flair's May route map comprises 71 routes, of which 52 – about three-quarters – have head-to-head competition. That's a large proportion, although it's less than US ULCC Spirit. Even Toronto to Nashville, which Flair will serve twice-weekly from April 14th, will have three operators (Air Canada, Flair, WestJet), although evidently targeting different passengers.

Often, Flair will compete directly with higher-cost operators and will provide a lower-fare alternative. An extreme example is Comox to Edmonton, which in a week in mid-May has three Flair flights and six by WestJet. On May 12th, WestJet is asking CAD$221 (US$173) one-way including taxes for its basic fare, excluding a checked bag. Against this is CAD$47 (US$37) including taxes for Flair's bare bundle option. Of course, the very low price is highly 'inventory controlled' – there won't be many seats at the price – and it only includes one small personal item.

While Flair's 71 routes average 15 departures in May, or about four-weekly, 12 are served once-daily or more. The short link between Calgary and Vancouver leads the pack, as shown below, with the following list highlighting all routes with once-daily+ service: