In today's press briefing, Hong Kong Chief Executive, Carrie Lam, has hinted that the island city may start easing pandemic restrictions in the coming weeks due to pressure from residents and industry. In response to a reporter's question regarding a similar remark made yesterday, Lam said:

“The reason why I think the time has come is not that the number of cases has come down significantly - they are actually now at the high-level plateau in public-health terms - but I have a very strong feeling that people's tolerance is fading.”

In the same press briefing, Lam has confirmed that she will have an update regarding the matter on “either 20 or 21 March.”

Impact on aviation

Hong Kong has enforced some of the strictest pandemic laws worldwide as it aims to become "Covid zero." Notably, there are current flight restrictions for nine countries, including the United Kingdom, United States, France, Canada, and India, set to stay in place until April 20.

The city's flag carrier, Cathay Pacific, flew just over 700,00 passengers last year compared to 35.2 million in 2019. The airline's cargo sector has not fared well either, with total cargo carried down 20% compared to the year before. In a statement, Chief Customer and Commercial Officer Ronald Lam said:

“The operating environment for Cathay Pacific remains very challenging. Travel and operational restrictions in place in Hong Kong continued to constrain our ability to operate more passenger flight capacity in February and we operated below 2 percent of pre-COVID-19 levels, a reduction of about 28 percent compared with January 2022. These, together with the current restrictions in Hong Kong, mean that we do not foresee significant signs of recovery in passenger travel demand in March.”

Cathay Pacific is currently operating at a loss of roughly HK$1 billion (US$128 million) a month since February, projecting an overall loss of at least HK$5.6 billion ($716 million) this year. Since 2020, the airline has laid off 5,900 members of staff.

The future for Hong Kong

However, Hong Kong's aviation woes are deeper than Cathay Pacific's financial woes. Once one of the busiest airports in the world, Hong Kong International Airport has been sitting largely empty and unused. In 2019, passenger traffic averaged 6 million passengers a month, a figure not reached in all of 2021.

Financial Times is reporting that an unnamed North American airline executive has told the publication that airlines are currently reconsidering routes to Hong Kong, stating that it is now "career suicide" to continue to advocate for flights to the city.

Drastic changes to the city's economic, political, and legislative environment prior to the pandemic have only added to its current troubles. The mass unrest has already led to some doubt for Hong Kong's future. Concerns have been raised that Singapore will soon replace Hong Kong as Asia's financial and aviation center.

Nearby "liberal" financial hubs Seoul and Singapore have already overtaken the city in terms of air traffic, while major carriers including British Airways, Lufthansa, and Air France have suspended all direct flights to the city. Could long-term restrictions be the nail in the coffin for Hong Kong's aviation dominance?

What do you think of Hong Kong potentially easing up on pandemic restrictions? Let us know in the comments section.