Norse Atlantic has revealed an average seat load factor (SLF) of 75% between June and August, and 69% in August. We shouldn't read too much into one month's result, especially for a new entrant, and we don't yet know what passengers paid or individual route performance. In its first three months, it transported over 96,000 passengers, which included me.

The first three months

Norse Atlantic took off on its first revenue-generating service on June 14th from Oslo to New York JFK. Since then, it has expanded strongly, understandably keen to benefit from the summer's peak demand. In August, it began flying from London Gatwick, followed by Berlin.

According to OAG, Norse Atlantic filed 129,454 seats for sale between June and August. When related to the airline's stated SLFs, it carried approximately 96,479 passengers. These are broken down per month in the following figure, which highlights its inevitable capacity jump in August, the result of its route network rising threefold from three to nine.

Indeed, it had 131% more seats for sale in August than in July, but passengers rose by approximately 85%. Traffic didn't keep up, but it probably would never have, especially with a new company. Notice September's capacity is a third higher than in August. If I didn't lease B787s to Air Europa, this might have been higher.

Norse Atlantic's seats, passengers, and SLF so far
September's capacity is included for comparison reasons. Source data: Cirium, Norse Atlantic, and my own calculations.

Stay aware: Sign up for my weekly new routes newsletter.

A look at SLF

SLF is part of the route performance puzzle. With too much capacity relative to demand at particular prices, an airline might discount more to drive demand to fill flights, reducing passenger revenue per available seat mile. As the cost per available seat mile would be unchanged, margins and performance would reduce.

Soon after disclosing its August figures, Norse Atlantic announced a big sale, mainly designed to help increase loads in the winter. It'll be betting on more passengers resulting in more ancillary revenue (checked bags, meals, etc.), crucial to increasing total revenue.

Depending on how often a specific route has a low SLF, an airline might downguage aircraft (if available and relative to other opportunities) or reduce frequency. Both might help to increase SLF but would ultimately have other implications on costs (smaller aircraft mean higher seat-mile costs) and competitiveness and market share.

If an inadequately low SLF persists, a route might be cut unless it makes a huge network contribution for a hub airline or is funded, with the highly valuable aircraft redeployed where route performance will hopefully be better.

Norse Atlantic's route network
Norse Atlantic's route network as of September 15th. Image: GCMap.

Discover more aviation news.

What will happen this winter?

Norse Atlantic needs to bed down its existing routes and let them develop while making necessary frequency reductions depending on bookings, overall winter demand, and performance. Looking ahead, Norse Atlantic said that:

[We] will be cautious with regard to [our] winter 2022 program and are continuously evaluating all routes, including potentially decreasing its program in line with demand.

It had already sensibly decided not to fly Berlin-New York JFK 1x daily this winter, as it has this summer. Instead, it will run 3x weekly, reflecting far lower winter demand. And Oslo to Orlando, which started in July, ends in October; it doesn't look like it'll return.

Norse Atlantic Berlin Los Angeles
The route was introduced in mid-August. Photo: Norse Atlantic.

Is Dubai coming?

Norse's comment likely means some routes will be flown less often this winter, which is not a negative thing. Indeed, it might mean that winter-seasonal services are added, such as Dubai, at which Norse secured slots.

Have you flown Norse? If so, share your experience in the comments.