On the one year anniversary of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, how have airlines been coping? While some have lost significant parts of their networks by not being able to serve Russian or Ukrainian cities, more frequently discussed is the issue of not being able to overfly Russia and the impact this is having on fuel costs for airlines.

Some of that impact has lessened, as the cost of fuel has dropped 43% from its peak last June. According to Conroy Gaynor, industry analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, its still more expensive, but less so than before.

“One year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, jet fuel in Europe is about one-third more expensive vs. 2019.”

Conroy noted that top European network airlines such as IAG and Air France-KLM were navigating the airspace bans with little impact on their profits. But for Nordic airlines, the ramifications are more intense, as Conroy explained,

“Avoiding flying over Russia could be resulting in a time and cost penalty of 15-40% on European airlines, with Finnair the worst-affected at 40% longer flights to China, and British Airways with 20% longer diversions. Penalized carriers could also face higher labour and maintenance costs due to longer flights. The extra flying time by European carriers also means higher carbon emissions.”

Finnair Airbus A350
Photo: Markus Mainka | Shutterstock.

The situation is geographically skewed as well, with Chinese airlines not facing the same airspace restrictions as their European counterparts. Conroy noted an example of a Shanghai to Paris flight, operated by both China Eastern and Air France, in which Air France had to take a longer route, while China Eastern could fly direct.

Both carriers used the same aircraft, a Boeing 777-300ER. Assuming the same fuel burn for both airplanes, Conroy’s team estimated an additional cost of $15,650 for the Air France flight, and additional fuel burn of over 6,000 gallons.

Hidden impact: airport slots

One area that is less well discussed in relation to the war is the impact it is having on airport slots and airline operations outside of direct fuel costs.

Airline slots had already been thrown into chaos with the onset of COVID and associated travel restrictions, but just when airlines were ready to rebuild their operations, another challenge presented itself. With Russian airspace closed, services taking circumvenous routes and adding time to the flight is making it impossible to maintain their pre-assigned slots.

KLM Boeing 777 and 787 Aerial View at Amsterdam Schiphol
Photo: Aerovista Luchtfotografie | Shutterstock

Lara Maughan, Head of Worldwide Airport Slots at IATA, explained the situation to Simple Flying,

“When they've come to rebuild those routes, they're suddenly facing this airspace closure, which it's not just a small, incremental sort of rerouting, like we've seen through the Gulf before.

“For example, Finnair is experiencing a three to four hour rerouting. Japanese airline coming into Europe are looking at a two, three hour block time change. Some carriers are actually going a the full round the world routing, because it's actually shorter to take the pole routing back and keep going eastwards back to Europe.”

Airlines coped with this disruption by adjusting arrival times at the end of the route where they could get some flexibility in the slots. Inevitably, this would be at their home base. For last summer, this was relatively easy to implement, given that worldwide capacity was still hovering at around 70 - 80% of pre-pandemic levels, but for the summer ahead, we could have a problem.

Lara noted one of the more creative ways some airlines are looking to solve these issues,

“If you pull some of the schedules from 2019 and 2022, you can see the carriers leaving their base airport at the usual time, and arriving two or three hours later in Japan. And then, because they've struggled to get the slot time changes, they're having to schedule on the previous departure time, which is two or three hours before that aircraft arrives.

“That’s a huge impact on aircraft planning because they're having to mobilise two additional aircraft to deliver a weekly schedule.”

United Airlines Boeing 777
Photo: Santi Rodriguez I Shutterstock

She noted that there have been issues with crewing the flights also. In some situations, in order to fly the block hours required to avoid Russian airspace, some airlines are facing going over their agreed maximum crew hours. Some have dealt with this via new agreements with trade unions, while others have had to put additional crew on the flights, adding cost and complexity to these operations.

Could airlines lose their slots?

It’s clear that airlines are coping with some incredibly difficult situations as a result of the airspace closure, but having more flexibility in their slot allocation could take some of the pain out of the situation. Lara noted,

“What we need is for the slot coordinators to be understanding that this is not a voluntary approach to scheduling; it is a reaction. We've seen varying degrees reasonableness on this.”

Air India Boeing 777 takes off from JFK
Photo: Eliyahu Yosef Parypa | Shutterstock

The problem is not all airlines are physically closed out of Russian airspace. For EU, UK and US airlines, the sanctions mean they cannot enter that airspace. But for other airlines, it’s less clear-cut. Japan, for instance, has taken the sanction to block all payments into Russia, so if an airline were to overfly the country and require an emergency landing, it would have no ground support, no ability to refuel or to pay for anything. Other airlines’ insurance providers have made it clear that overflying Russia would be a violation.

So whether NOTAM closed out or closed out for another reason, carriers are unable to enter Russian airspace. This, IATA believes, is a clear justification for non-use of slots. However, some slot coordinators have taken the stance that unless the airline is NOTAM closed out, it is voluntarily not using its slots. As we all know, non-use of slots can and does result in a forfeit of those facilities in the next corresponding season.

Japan Airlines parked at Handea airport
Photo: Dpongvit / Shutterstock

Lara says IATA is genuinely concerned that some airlines could end up losing slots through no fault of their own. She notes that some coordinators have been of the opinion that airlines with not enough fleet to cover the slots should be leasing in aircraft to ensure operations. But that comes with its own problems; there aren’t an infinite number of aircraft for lease out there, and coupled with the supply chain problem for engines and parts supply, its just not a viable option.

It would be devastating to think that an issue such as a war and an airspace closure could result in airline forfeits.

“Airports want to start rebuilding their services because they were highly demanded prior to COVID, but airlines could end up potentially shifting flying out of a different airport to make sure the most highly demanded routes are covered. So then you're impacting a third airport because the coordinators not being reasonable at the most heavily demanded airport.”

Getting back to normal?

Much of what we hear today in aviation is about how we’re making progress on a ‘return to normal,’ how airlines are almost back to pre-COVID schedules, how capacity and passengers flown is increasing. With Asia and, most importantly, China now back in the mix, hopes are high for a more standard summer.

China Southern Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 8
Photo: Jeffy Surianto | Shutterstock

But the Russian airspace closure is waiting in the background to throw a spanner in those works. With longer routes still required and some slot coordinators unwilling or unable to adjust the provisions for airlines, we’re still a very long way from ‘normal’ as we head towards the summer season. Lara noted,

“From an outlook point of view, we are getting back to normal. But from a scheduling point of view, where we've got slot use on every single flight on the day of the week at the time, it's still quite a varied picture.”

For airlines looking to have a super summer 2023, cooperation from slot coordinators could take some of the sting out of the impact of these longer routes. But the message is clear; until this war is brought to an end and airspace is reopened, the industry is still quite a long way from being ‘back to normal.’