Building an aircraft fleet and planning for its future is a major task for all airlines. Indeed, the largest carriers in the world already have a fairly clear idea of which types they'll be flying in 2030. This is largely due to the amount of time it takes for aircraft manufacturers to bring a new design to market. So with the current situation between Airbus and Qatar Airways, let's engage in a small thought experiment and ask ourselves what we might expect the airline to be flying a decade from now.

Assuming the worst

Firstly, it should be noted that this outlook assumes that the current feud between Airbus and Qatar Airways will result in a permanent (or at least long-term) rift between the two parties. Indeed, there seem to be few outcomes in this surface-degradation case in which Qatar Airways will be ordering from Airbus anytime soon.

Regardless of who wins this case, it would seem that enough 'bad blood' now exists between the two groups that neither will want to do business with the other. As a customer, Qatar Airways is free to simply 'not order' from Airbus. On the other side, Airbus has already taken the seemingly unprecedented step of canceling an order from an airline customer - showing the industry that it's just fine saying 'no' to more business.

So with this in mind, what will be some stand-out characteristics of the Qatar Airways fleet come 2032?

The Airbus A350 (and all Airbus aircraft) may be gone

At this point in time, the Airbus A350 is the newest type in the airline's collection of aircraft. However, even if some of these active jets are now as young as two or three years old, they may not be around in 10 years.

Why is this? Well, it's because many of Qatar Airways' A350s, both -900 and -1000, are leased. And, according to ch-aviation.com, many of these leases have an estimated expiration date within the late 2020s and early 2030s. So if we combine this with the fact that Qatar Airways consistently boasts about having one of the youngest fleets in the world, then it's likely that even the youngest A350s will be phased out and sent back to lessors once terms are finished.

Without a doubt, the airline's narrowbody A320 family fleet will be gone, seeing as these aircraft already have an average age of 10 years. Additionally, we would also expect the airline to have phased out its A330s and A380s - aircraft that are only still flying these days due to the grounding of over two dozen A350s. It would be amazing (for A380 lovers) if the carrier could operate its A380s for another 10 years, but this doesn't seem likely - even if the youngest superjumbos are just five to six years of age.

As you can clearly see, Qatar Airways seems like it could be joining Southwest and Ryanair on the list of airlines that are loyal Boeing customers...

Qatar Airways' all-Boeing fleet

So again, if we assume that the airline will be "going all-Boeing," then what will it be operating? Well, the answer seems quite clear with the airline's current order book.

ch-aviation.com data (and of course recent Simple Flying reporting) shows that the airline has at least 25 Boeing 737 MAX 10s on order. Additionally, the airline has made a commitment to taking 24 777-8Fs and 50 777-9s. The biggest question mark for the carrier's upcoming orders relates to whether or not Boeing will end up scrapping the MAX 10 and how this will change the airline's direction If the MAX 10 is axed due to certification issues, it's quite likely the airline will just opt for the MAX 9 instead.

The newer types on order are in addition to the 787-9 Dreamliners the airline had ordered from Boeing in October 2016, which came alongside an order for 10 more 777-300ERs. It will be interesting to see if the airline decides to phase out its older Dreamliners by then. That's because its oldest 787-8s would be 18-20 years old by the early 2030s. Of course, we would need to ask ourselves what these will be replaced with. Would the airline opt for factory-fresh Dreamliners? And, at the same time, would it have any other options?

Launching Boeing's next offering?

So, this guess is a little more 'out there,' since there are far more unknowns when it comes to future aircraft. However, if we look at historical trends then we can see that over the years, Qatar Airways has been keen to be a launch customer for various new aircraft types. And while we have far less visibility on what these new aircraft types might be, we could certainly envision the airline's CEO wanting to be at the front of the line.

Could the airline operate a 787-10ER? A 737-10ER? Or perhaps the 797? We really just have to wait and see what Boeing will come up with next. However, the latter is perhaps the most interesting prospect. If we estimate that Boeing launches a new aircraft program within the next two years and takes five to seven years to get the aircraft certified and into service, then it's certainly possible that Qatar Airways could be the launch customer of the next 'latest and greatest' Boeing jet - assuming the program isn't plagued by too many delays!

Additionally, while the airline has given no hints or shown any interest in following Japan Airlines and United Airlines' lead in buying into Boom Supersonic, perhaps the Boom Overture is a possibility given the airline's reputation for being a high-quality, premium-service airline. Of course, it's also not an Airbus aircraft...

While Qatar Airways' current orders make us fairly certain that it will be flying the 737 MAX, 787-9, and at least one 777X variant, we will just have to wait and see what happens over the next few years!

What do you think Qatar Airways' fleet will look like in 10 years? And could you see the airline going back to being an Airbus customer under certain circumstances? Let us know what you think by leaving a comment!

Sources: ch-aviation.com, Planespotters.net