As Boeing, Airbus, and Embraer all pull out of supplying Russian airlines with planes and parts, all three are staring down the barrel of a potentially empty orderbook in that country. While the length of time Russia will be under sanctions is unknown, history has shown what the impact of such moves could be.Take Iran as a case in point. The nation has been under sanctions on and off since 1995, preventing manufacturers from providing new planes or parts for existing aircraft to any operators in the country. As such, Iran’s aviation industry has been limping along with a motley collection of old and unusual aircraft – an avgeek’s dream, but not the best for airline efficiency or operational reliability.Airbus A300B4-605R - Iran Air (EP-IBA) landing at Heathrow Airport When the sanctions were lifted in 2015, Iranian airlines signed a flurry of orders to renew their aging fleets. By 2016, deals had been signed relating to 100 Airbus jets, 80 Boeing aircraft, and 40 ATR turboprops. But only 11 aircraft were delivered to the airlines before 2018 saw sanctions reapplied as the US withdrew from the nuclear deal.Although the situation with Russia is very different from that involving Iran, there are some parallel similarities. Both Airbus and Boeing have a significant number of orders in place with Russian airlines, and both could be forced to find elsewhere to place their planes if the sanctions last for an extended period.

Data from this article was taken from the database at ch-aviation.com. This may not account for aircraft ordered by lessors for delivery to Russian airlines, only those placed directly.

Boeing’s risk

According to data from ch-aviation.com, Boeing has outstanding orders for 42 aircraft sitting with Russian airlines right now. These include six 777-200F for AirBridgeCargo, and 36 737 MAX 8s destined for UTair, Ural Airlines, and S7 Airlines.

AirBridgeCargo (ABC) is an offshoot of outsized cargo specialist Volga-Dnepr. The main branch of the cargo airline uses Antonov and Ilyushin aircraft for its operations, but ABC flies Boeings. The Group expressed an interest in the 777 platform back in 2018. In 2019, it firmed up an order for nine 777-200F. The first one was delivered to ABC in August 2020.

ABC 777F
Photo: AirBridgeCargo

While some parts of that order have since been subject to sale and leaseback transactions, six aircraft remain outstanding. According to ch-aviation, these are not planned for delivery until 2024 – 2025. Potentially, the situation may have eased before these delivery windows roll around.

More of a problem for Boeing are the many 737 MAX headed to Russia. The biggest headache will be UTair, an airline with 28 737 MAX on order. The carrier originally placed an order for 30 of the new narrowbodies back in 2018, six of which were due to be delivered in 2020. These were critical to its future fleet for the airline, as it was replacing not 737 NGs with the planes, but 737 Classics, including its 26 aging 737-500s.

UTair 737
UTair has a lot of rather elderly 737 Classics to replace. Photo: UTair

To date, UTair has not taken delivery of a single 737 MAX, largely due to the prolonged grounding. It even had to lease some 737 NG capacity to stay on its planned expansion course while waiting for the MAXs to arrive. According to ch-aviation, the first MAX were due to arrive in March 2023, delivering regularly through to December 2027, when all 28 would be handed over.

In terms of imminent deliveries, both S7 and Ural Airlines were expecting 737 MAX arrivals pretty soon. Ural Airlines only has two on order from Boeing, both of which were earmarked to arrive this month. At least two have been spotted on flight testing around Boeing Field in recent weeks.

S7 Airlines was the first to fly the MAX in Russia, taking delivery of its first in October 2018. It has taken delivery of another one since and, according to ch-aviation data, has six more due to arrive. While not all have had estimated delivery dates applied, at least two were expected to be delivered before the summer. Again, almost completed aircraft have been spotted around Renton in recent weeks.

Airbus’ risk

Airbus has a smaller but no less significant exposure to Russia. It has a total of 22 aircraft listed by ch-aviation as being destined for Russian airlines, a large portion of which is its flagship widebody, the A350.

Aeroflot Airbus A350-941 VP-BXC (2)
Lessors have lost billions in fleet value since February due to the ongoing war and sanctions. Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying

Airbus’ biggest Russian customer is Aeroflot, which has 13 A350-900s on order from the European planemaker. It has already taken delivery of nine, the latest of which was delivered to Moscow on February 24th. While there are no delivery dates listed for the outstanding aircraft, AIBFamilyFlights notes MSN 471 has been undergoing flight testing ahead of its planned delivery.

On the narrowbody side, the popular A320neo family has some outstanding Russian orders. S7 Airlines appears here again, with orders in for four planes – three A321LR and one A320neo. No delivery date has been indicated for these.

SmartAvia,_VP-BOS,_Airbus_A320-251N_(51265505595)
smartavia was expecting three more A320neos imminently. Photo: Anna Zvereva via Wikimedia

The other narrowbody customer is smartavia, which is expecting three A320neos from Airbus. These should have been delivered in the early part of this year. One from this order tranche was delivered in February, joining the three that were already in the smartavia fleet. Two are noted by AIBFamilyFlights to have been well on the way to delivery date, with MSN 10791 taking its first flight on March 1st, and MSN 10786 on February 18th.

ch-aviation data does not show unfirmed orders, or all those placed with lessors to supply aircraft.

Lufthansa interest?

According to reporting at IFN News, the Lufthansa Group could be waiting in the wings to take over some of these undelivered aircraft. At a press conference earlier this week, the group CEO Carsten Spohr confirmed that the group is in talks with aircraft manufacturers regarding additional deliveries.

Of particular interest to the Lufthansa Group are the Airbus A350s, destined initially for Aeroflot. Alongside this, Lufthansa Cargo is reported to be interested in additional Boeing 777 freighters, potentially signaling a desire to take on the aircraft destined for Volga-Dnepr.

What will Russian airlines fly?

Although we started this story by drawing parallels between Russia and Iran, there’s one crucial factor that differentiates these nations and their aviation industries. Russia makes its own planes and has done for years; Iran, although it regularly eyes production of commercial aircraft, has not produced anything yet.

SSJ
The SSJ-100 is a homegrown commercial aircraft. Photo: Rostec

As such, Russian airlines have an option on the table that was not available for Iranian airlines, and that’s to simply fly Russian planes. Outstanding orders are in place for hundreds of SSJ 100s from carriers, including Rossiya, Red Wings, Azimuth, and more. Then, there are hundreds of MC-21s also on order, including for Aeroflot, IrAero, Red Wings, and others. Also in the mix are 19 Ilyushin Il-114-300s from Aurora.

The problem with that plan

But there’s a problem with this solution; several problems, in fact. Let’s start with the big one – all but one of these aircraft are not completed or ready to be delivered yet.

The Il-114-300 is a resurrected version of a three-decade-old turboprop that never sold that well in the first place. United Aircraft wanted to modernize and revive the design, pitting it against the competitors in this space from DHC and ATR. Originally, the idea was to move part of the Dash 8-400s production to Russia with a view to supplying Russian airlines with the plane. But, after talks became stilted following the annexation of Crimea, Russia took matters into its own hands.

Il-114-300
The Il-114-300 is a promising turboprop, but yet to be certified. Photo: Rostec

Last year, United Aircraft began flight testing the first prototype. It said that it was hoping for certification this year, but that’s now looking increasingly unlikely. Even if it does begin delivering before the end of the year, the output of the serial production plant is only planned to be around 12 aircraft per year.

The MC-21, again, is not certified yet. It has been undergoing a rigorous testing process, most recently undertaking cold soak testing in Yakutsk. Things are moving forward on certification, but it’s a slow process. Russia has previously said it would aim for 20 aircraft per year, but more recently updated this to an annual rate of 36.

Irkut MC-21
The MC-21 is also awaiting certification. Photo: Sumit Singh | Simple Flying

The second big problem is that only one of these aircraft would go any distance towards filling the hole in the order book from the loss of Boeing and Airbus. Both the SSJ and the Il-114 are very much regional flyers, with only the MC-21 being capable of big trans-Russia routings.

All in, 45 narrowbody jets are going to be missing from Russian fleets. Even if everything goes precisely to plan for United Aircraft, it will be some time before it gets production up to 36 planes a year, so these airlines could be waiting many years for a Russian alternative. On the widebody side, there is no alternative, so Aeroflot will be forced to fly what it has right now for the time being.

The silver lining for Russian aviation

The small silver lining here is that widebodies probably won’t be needed for a while. Russia is increasingly being cut off from the rest of the world, with nations all over the globe slamming their doors on the country’s airlines. Although some international connections remain, places for Russian airlines to fly long-haul are becoming fewer by the day.

Russia itself has a robust domestic aviation scene, as was witnessed during the worst of COVID. As the rest of the world stayed home and stopped traveling, Russian airlines were flying as much, if not more, than they did pre-COVID. Indeed, by mid-2020, Aeroflot had seen a complete recovery of domestic traffic, in some markets in excess of where it was pre-COVID.

Aeroflot A321
The carrier is shifting its focus back to domestically-produced aircraft. Photo: Aeroflot

Although Russians prefer to travel internationally, the reduction of options saw passengers heading for staycations in their droves. Russia boasts some impressive homegrown resorts, including Sochi and Anapa on the Black Sea.

Nevertheless, the elephant in the room for all Russian airlines is the lack of ongoing support from their plane manufacturers. Although around one-third of Russia’s commercial fleet is homegrown, most are small airplanes, not designed to go long distances. The two-thirds that Airbus, Embraer, and Boeing provide remains critical to all Russia’s airlines.

Once these planes hit their next service interval, or experience an unexpected maintenance issue, airlines are in trouble. While there may be a small stockpile of spare parts right now, that reserve won’t last long. When it becomes exhausted, Russian airlines will have to turn to cannibalization of their fleets in order to keep at least some airplanes flying.

It’s tough times for Russian aviation, but far tougher for those who are suffering at the hands of Putin’s war machine. For everyone involved, a swift resolution is the best possible outcome right now.

What do you think about the situation in Russia? Let us know in the comments.