Ryanair is facing the possibility of having far fewer MAX jets in service in time for the 2020 summer season, revising their fleet estimate down from 58 jets to just 30. In their latest earnings call, where profits were down 21%, O’Leary warned that this number could go down even further, perhaps as low as zero, if Boeing don’t get their [act] together.

No MAX jets next summer?

All through the MAX crisis, Ryanair’s boss Michael O’Leary has been positive about the aircraft’s return to service. At one point he even claimed he’d be ready to order more once the regulators gave them the all-clear. However, with 135 on order for its fleet, Ryanair’s future fleet strategy is heavily dependent on getting this aircraft back into service fast.

Its first 737 MAX 200 should have been delivered earlier this year, but deliveries were postponed pending the recertification of the type. Despite this, Ryanair had expected to have 58 in service in time for summer 2020. However, during this last earnings call, O’Leary cut this capacity down to 30 and warned it could go lower too. Reuters reports the chief as saying,

“I am concerned that the MAX return to service keeps slipping … It could move to 10 and it could move to zero if Boeing don’t get their shit together pretty quickly with the regulator.”

Ryanair Boeing 737 MAX Delay
Ryanair's 200 seater Boeing 737 MAX 8 needs separate certification due to its additional emergency exits. Photo: Ryanair

The estimate of 30 by summer 2020 was noted to be somewhat optimistic by O’Leary. He noted that the -200 variant of the type could take up to two months longer for regulatory approval and that Ryanair only has capacity to take delivery of eight aircraft per month. During the busy summer season, they can’t take any deliveries at all.

Boeing has been positive that the MAX will be back in service later this year, with Chief Executive Muilenburg expressing confidence during their latest earnings call. However, O’Leary said he had been told by Boeing that software amendments had been pushed back to October from September, saying that,

“It’s very difficult to deal with the Boeing delays because they keep getting delayed further and further.”

Simple Flying reached out to Boeing for comment, who referred us back to Muilenberg's statement during the earnings call, where he said,

"We will submit our final certification package to the FAA once we have satisfied all of their requirements, which we currently estimate will be in the September timeframe. However, as we have consistently emphasized, it is the FAA and other global aviation regulators that will determine when the 737 MAX returns to service. And we are working tirelessly to meet their requirements."

Impacts felt on growth and profits

Already the loss of capacity through the undelivered jets has begun to show in Ryanair’s bottom line. This latest quarter brought Ryanair to a pretax profit of $270.36m, down 21% from the same period last year.

Despite this, the carrier stuck to its forecast for whole year profits, pegged at somewhere between 750m and 950m euros ($835m – $1,058m). However, due to the ongoing grounding of the MAX, Ryanair revised their passenger growth target from 10 million passengers down to five million.

Ryanair Staff Surplus
The airline is seeking an injunction to block strike action. Photo: Ryanair

Ryanair is also battling with a fresh wave of strike threats, as pilots in the UK and Ireland, as well as cabin crew in Portugal, prepare to take industrial action. O’Leary stated he didn’t expect these issues to affect flights, but also that he would not take any action that could potentially increase Ryanair’s overall costs.

He slated the strike threats as being ‘ill-timed and ill-judged’, noting that they are likely to coincide with the planned base cuts, job losses and closures due to the MAX delays.

As well as this, Ryanair is still making preparations for the forthcoming Brexit deadline. With a new prime minister in charge, the UK Is looking increasingly at risk of crashing out of the EU with no deal in place. The Guardian reports O’Leary as saying,

“We are cautious on pricing into the winter … Brexit and the risk of a hard Brexit has materially increased with the new government in the UK.”

If Ryanair does indeed remove the MAX from their schedules until January 2020, or perhaps even later, they will join fellow LCC in the US, Southwest Airlines, in doing so.