The Ryanair Group will serve 228 airports this summer, and Lisbon was to be its 14th-busiest, according to OAG data.

That was before the ULCC cut 19 routes – shown in the map below – supposedly in response to the Portuguese Government's inaction over unused TAP Air Portugal slots, given up in exchange for state aid, at Lisbon.

The elimination has seen one in six (16%) of Ryanair's Lisbon departures going, equivalent to 1,395 outbound flights (double it for two ways) across the peak season. It means the Portuguese capital has fallen ten places in Ryanair's busiest airport list to 24th.

Ryanair's Lisbon route cuts
The 19 routes cut by Ryanair at Lisbon. Image: GCMap.

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Ryanair's bite versus its bark

Ryanair has much form when it comes to threatening to pull out of an airport, to remove based aircraft – it'll remove three from Lisbon – or to cut routes or passengers. Time and again, it has threatened airports, governments, and countries: if you increase charges or don't take the action we expect or need, you'll suffer.

While that action might seem draconian, the ULCC is good to its word. The history books are littered with examples of it pulling out or making significant cuts, whether at an airport where it is the sole operator or where it has a weaker negotiating hand.

Ryanair's action may seem drastic, unfair, or even childish, but it's essential, especially if it concerns rising charges.

If it shows weakness or gives in, as a smaller or weaker carrier might, it'd be exposed to many changes. It'd set a dangerous precedent. It could undermine its entire existence by increasing its costs and, in turn, necessitating higher average fares and lowering demand. Aircraft are, by definition, very movable assets.

Ryanair-Lisbon-Birmingham-2
Ryanair is Lisbon's second-largest airline. After the cuts are made, it has an 11% share of departures, down two percentage points versus pre-cut. Many places will no longer be connected to Lisbon, including Birmingham (shown here). Photo: Alan Wilson via Flickr.

But Lisbon is different

Removing 19 routes seems to have been about making a point of the need for openness, fairness, and the ability to compete. But it's more than this.

It appears that most of the 19 routes were typically poorer-performing, according to data from experts RDC Aviation – and they might have been cut anyway. However, Ryanair had found a cause to eliminate them, as is often the case for route eliminations that reach the public eye.

RDC Aviation's data is for full-year 2021. It clearly shows many of the 19 routes were below Ryanair's fare trend line from Lisbon (in blue). Moreover, the Portuguese capital itself fared worse than Ryanair's average (in red), so the reductions were probably inevitable to help improve its performance there.

Ryanair Lisbon fares RDC
With thanks to RDC Aviation and Iain Smith, RDC Aviation's Commercial Director.

As usual, things aren't this simple

At route level, the underperformance isn't surprising. According to OAG, some 15 of the 19 routes started in 2021 or – like Bari (BRI), Oujda (OUD), and Poitiers (PIS) – were due to take off in 2022.

Only Karlsruhe (FKB), Memmingen (FMM), Krakow (KRK), and Zaragoza (ZAZ) were served pre-pandemic, with most flights this summer scheduled to use Lisbon-based aircraft. While FKB underperformed last year, it's likely the elimination of the four routes was, to a degree, because of a lack of aircraft from removing three based machines.

What do you make of it all? Let us know in the comments.