Ryanair will remain firmly rooted in Europe and has little intention or need to expand further eastwards, according to the ULCC's Director of Route Development, Ray Kelliher. He was answering a question from the audience at CONNECT Route Development Forum in Tangier. He acknowledged that Ryanair's network would experience "gradual creep" in the future.

Ryanair: a summary

Ryanair is Europe's largest airline. It'll serve 36 countries this summer, according to Cirium. They're as far apart as Jordan, Morocco, the United Kingdom, and Finland. Of its ~686,000 flights, 95% are within Europe, 4% are from Europe to North Africa (the largest airline in this market), and 1% are between Europe and the Middle East. It no longer serves Caucasia (Armenia, Georgia) or Lebanon.

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Ryanair's average flight is 760 miles

While Ryanair might not be as entrepreneurial network-wise as Wizz Air, it is perfectly content with that. Indeed, Ryanair's average sector length is 760 miles (1,223 km) this summer, about a fifth shorter than the Wizz Air Group.

Ryanair's average is within the one to two-hour 'sweet spot' for aircraft productivity, enabling it to increase utilization by block hours and sectors per day (ideally six), so crucial for short-haul ULCC operations. It means lower seat mile and seat costs, enabling lower fares to grow demand. This means more passengers, more fare revenue per aircraft per day, and more ancillary revenue from the greater passenger volume. It doesn't counterbalance longer sectors with bigger aircraft and having even more seats to fill.

All about utilization

In answering the question about whether Ryanair would push further east, Kelliher was unequivocal:

"The one thing that Ryanair cares about is the utilization of aircraft. One of the biggest projects we're working on is improving utilization. We've set a target number of the average utilization we need to achieve in the next three years – spoiler, it's higher than it is today. How do we manage that if expanding further east? It would be difficult for us."

Kelliher added,

"In the next five to ten years, Saudi Arabia, for example, will have one of the most powerful airlines in the Middle East by size and capacity. For us, it means that, in the longer term, such places won't be a good use of our aircraft."

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But...

As always, there was a clarification of sorts.

"I suspect that if you asked Ryanair 20 years ago if it would be expanding into Morocco or Israel or Jordan, people would have said 'oh no, we have enough to do in Europe'. [They three countries have EU open skies and aren't too far from Europe, evidently prerequisites.]

"The reality is, we are growing the fleet by 50% versus COVID. Opportunities come up. We have a different product offering than many other carriers within Europe and the Middle East. So I never say never. It is opportunity versus risk. The opportunities for us are within Europe, but you will see a gradual creep."

Subject to open skies, I expect Ryanair to fly to Tunisia and probably Egypt while growing Turkey. Where would you like them to fly? Let us know in the comments.

• 

  Ryanair

  IATA/ICAO Code:

  FR/RYR

  Airline Type:

  Low-Cost Carrier

  Hub(s):

  Dublin Airport, London Stansted Airport, Milan Bergamo Airport

  Year Founded:

  1985

  Airline Group:

  Ryanair Group

  CEO:

  Eddie Wilson

  Country:

  Ireland