Following a bonanza year for Europe’s top low-cost carrier, Ryanair’s passenger figures have seen a significant decline during November, dropping to 2% growth on 2019 compared to October’s 14%.

Seasonal decline

Ryanair has seen consistent growth through 2022, overtaking 2019’s passenger figures in March before reaching a peak of 16.9 million carried during August – a 13% increase on 2019. Growth stayed steady through September and October before shrinking to less than 2% for November, with passengers dropping by 4.5 million to 11.2 million.

While a decline in demand for air travel during the holiday off-season is no new phenomenon, the sharp decrease for Ryanair is relatively significant, raising questions about the potential impact of inflation and the ongoing cost-of-living crisis on the European aviation industry into 2023.

Ryanair Passenger Recovery Chart 2019 - 2022
Graph: Simple Flying

The carrier has frequently dismissed concerns about the impact of economic issues on its business model, citing its competitive fares as holidaymakers seek cheaper tickets.

Demand is expected to remain stable through the winter season, with chief executive Michael O’Leary explaining to Reuters on Thursday;

"Christmas is very strong. At the moment, Christmas bookings are running ahead of where they were pre-COVID in 2019 and pricing is ahead by a low double-digit percentage.”

Not all doom and gloom

November marked a significant swing in finances for the airline, following a return to pre-tax profits during the first half of the year despite an increase in operational costs. For the first six months of the year, Ryanair posted a €1.37 billion ($1.44 billion) pre-tax profit, compared to a negative €100 million ($105 million) during the first half of 2021.

Overall, Ryanair remains optimistic about November’s figures, citing a five percentage-point increase in load factor compared to 2021. The airline has “modestly” raised its traffic guidance by 13% for 2023 to 168 million passengers, though figures remain dependent on delayed Boeing 737 MAX deliveries, with 1-2 million potentially knocked off its target.

Ryanair Strike Action In Belgium 2018
Photo: Getty Images

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Year-end strike action?

While demand is likely to be sustained if trends persist, Ryanair may face operational setbacks during winter as union staff in Belgium threaten strike action.

In its second dispute of the year, ACV Puls and CNE-GNC have warned the low-cost carrier that “there is a good chance that staff will express their anger” through December following a continued dispute.

Ryanair has faced off against the union coalition on several occasions over the past four years, cutting all Belgian-operated flights out of Brussels (BRU) and Charleroi (CRL) during two weekends in April and July earlier this year.

The most recent union statement addressed to parliamentary ministers Pierre-Yves Dermange and Vincent Van Quickenborne noted dissatisfaction at the temporary closure of Ryanair’s Brussels base. CNE criticized the airline for continuing to “flout the laws,” alleging that its planned shift to other bases across Europe is illegal. No strike dates have been released as of December 2.

What are your thoughts on Ryanair’s November figures? What do you think is causing a decline in passenger numbers? Let us know in the comments.

  • Ryanair Boeing 737
    Ryanair
    IATA/ICAO Code:
    FR/RYR
    Airline Type:
    Low-Cost Carrier
    Hub(s):
    Dublin Airport, London Stansted Airport, Milan Bergamo Airport
    Year Founded:
    1985
    Airline Group:
    Ryanair Group
    CEO:
    Eddie Wilson
    Country:
    Ireland