Boeing's new mid-market airplane (NMA) was widely expected to be a twin-aisle offering. But with the rising trend for using single aisle aircraft for ever-longer flights, could Boeing reconsider this strategy. Speaking to Simple Flying, Dr Joe Leader, CEO of the Airline Passenger Experience Association (APEX), said he believes single aisle could work, as long as it’s comfortable to fly.
A single or twin aisle 797?
Boeing’s gap in its lineup has been ripe for a new product for several years. The niche that was previously filled by the 757 and 767 has no replacement, leaving a wide gap between Boeing’s largest 737 and smallest 787.
The new mid-market airplane (NMA), colloquially known as the 797, has been an anticipated development for many years. With narrowbody aircraft becoming ever more capable in range, there’s some movement in this niche, but not yet by Boeing.
Speaking to Simple Flying, Dr Joe Leader commented on the rising trend of long-haul single aisle aircraft. He said,
“What the 787 and A350 were primarily used for over the past decade, I see single aisle aircraft taking a greater role over the upcoming decade. I'm still hopeful for Boeing's conceptual mid-market aircraft, the 797 … I cannot wait to see the offering.”
In the past, the 797 has been touted to be a smaller twin-aisle aircraft, capable of very long routes but catering to those markets where sending a larger aircraft is not economically feasible. But with Boeing taking its designs back to the drawing board, could a single aisle A321XLR competitor be more the focus?
At this point, we just don’t know. Boeing could well stick to its plan of a twin-aisle, fast turnaround point-to-point aircraft, something to replace the 767, or it could go more down the route of a narrowbody that builds beyond the 737 and fills the shoes of the 757 instead.
“Those are questions that I'm sure many in our industry are looking forward to answers for,” commented Dr Joe.
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Lacking an A321neo competitor
Airbus has somewhat cornered the mid-market already, with its long-range A321LR and forthcoming A321XLR. While these aircraft don’t quite fulfill the brief of an NMA, they come very close, and certainly a lot closer than anything Boeing has on the table right now.
At a recent CAPA Live event, Steve Udvar-Hazy, Chairman of Air Lease Corporation, noted that Boeing lacks a true competitor to the A321, describing it as Boeing’s ‘Achilles heel.’ He said,
“For an airline that needs aircraft in the 200 seat or 200 seat plus category and can operate a mixed fleet of A320s and A321s, that is where I think Boeing right now has an Achilles heel. The [MAX] -10 is not an A321 direct competitor. It just doesn't quite have the same capabilities as the A321 in many areas, whether it's cargo, range, seating capacity. It doesn't quite match up”
The effect of this lack of competition occurs at both ends of the spectrum. With Boeing’s Embraer tie-up falling through, the manufacturer has no direct A220 competitor either. Udvar-Hazy believes this will translate into a greater dominance of Airbus in the single-aisle market, at least until Boeing can bring a new offering to the table. He said,
“I'm sure the [MAX] -10 will have many customers, including some US domestics, but the A321neo has run away with winning that category. That's something that Boeing cannot really address unless they develop a brand new airplane, and then that's seven, eight years away. So for the time being, I think we see Airbus having a 60, 65% market share in the single aisle.”
Single aisle could work, if the PaxEx is good
Whether Boeing develops a dual or single aisle competitor is still up for debate. However, the economics of operating single aisle aircraft on the long-haul are beginning to show. Dr Joe Leader believes that a single aisle could work for Boeing, but only if it’s a comfortable ride. He said,
“It's always healthy for industry to have competition. When it comes to these new aircraft concepts, single aisle will work but it will have to make sure that the passenger experience is comfortable. Otherwise the preference will turn back to dual aisle aircraft.”
You can hear more from Dr Joe Leader and some of the industry’s leading airlines and suppliers at the forthcoming FTE APEX Virtual Expo – “Relaunching global air transport” – taking place on the 25-26 May.
It promises to be the most comprehensive global industry gathering of the year, championing bold new ideas, solutions, collaboration and innovation efforts through all-encompassing conference sessions to facilitate an industry recovery that makes air transport even stronger in the long term.
View the full list of exhibitors here, or reserve your place today.