In the wake of several severe turbulence incidents in recent years, is flying getting bumpier? So far in 2023, at least five incidents resulting in severe injuries have occurred, including the aftermath, such as Hawaiian Airlines being in the middle of a lawsuit over a severe turbulence incident on a transpacific flight.

Turbulence typically creates a bumpy ride up in the air, but its effects can range from mild movements to devastating disruption and danger for passengers, crew and aircraft integrity. Some experts are blaming climate change for the uptick in turbulence-related incidents.

The new normal?

Last month, Alaska Airlines flight 889 from Portland, Oregon, to Honolulu was yet another flight to experience extreme turbulence. Ingrid Weisse was traveling on the Boeing 737 with her husband and two sons and said the aircraft began shaking so fiercely that it seemed as if the plane would come apart. Weisse recounted the incident, according to National Public Radio (NPR).

"It got really, really violent. There was lots of screaming in the cabin. A flight attendant was hit by an ice bucket that became a projectile. So many people got sick from the sudden changes in altitude that flight attendants had to hand out more vomit bags.”

The turbulence reportedly lasted for approximately 45 minutes. Weisse also mentioned that another frightened passenger yelled to the flight attendants, "Please tell us this is normal!"

Alaska Airlines Boeing 737-890 departing from John Wayne Airport.
Photo: John Wayne Airport

The incident was unlike anything the passengers or crew had experienced in the past. Before the plane arrived in Honolulu, one of the flight attendants informed Weisse that the turbulence was the worst they had seen in their 23 years in the business, according to NPR. Alaska confirmed the incident as "unexpected turbulence," but according to researchers, it is evident that a specific type of unpredictable turbulence has been becoming more common.

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Relation to climate change

Paul Williams is a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in England. He says that "clear air turbulence" is becoming more frequent. The type of turbulence occurs without clouds or inclement weather, hence the name. At altitudes above 15,000 feet, it is instead caused by wind shear, which is sudden changes in the speed of the wind and its direction.

Airplane Turbulence
Photo: hlopex/Shutterstock

Williams said the reason for the uptick in clear-air turbulence is climate change. Since global temperatures are increasing due to the rising levels of greenhouse gasses, such as carbon dioxide, the jet stream has more wind shear, according to NPR.

"Since satellites began observing in 1979, the amount of wind shear has grown by 15%," Williams said.

In the future

The professor and colleagues determined that severe turbulence is on track to worsen over the years, according to a follow-up study conducted using climate model simulations. The findings reportedly indicated that clear-air turbulence in the middle of the Northern Hemisphere could triple in the next three to six decades, depending on the levels of greenhouse emissions in the future.

"The problem is that clear-air turbulence cannot be spotted because it's above the clouds," said Carlo Scalo, an Associate Professor at Purdue University. "You don't really see it. It's just fast air moving into slow air and vice versa."

From 2009 to 2022, there have been 163 people that have serious injuries from severe turbulence, according to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The agency said it had developed guidance to help airlines avoid turbulence and minimize the risks.

Sources: NPR, FAA