Japan startup airline Zipair is due to start flying in May. There was sunny optimism about the future of the airline in 2019 but times are now more uncertain. The airline will be starting service in a market ravaged by declining passenger traffic.

The Tokyo-based airline is due to start flying between Narita and Bangkok's Suvarnabhumi Airport in mid-May and Narita and Seoul's Incheon Airport in early July. In the current environment, some would call that a courageous decision.

Zipair had big plans then went quiet

Like most airline startups, Zipair has big plans. It aims to grow its fleet to 10 planes in five years. While it will follow the classic low-cost model of point to point travel, there are ambitions to fly to both North America and Europe too.

Right now, Zipair has a pair of Boeing 787-8s. They came from Japan Airlines (Zipair is owned by JAL). The airline, which is styling itself as an amalgam of a full service and low-cost airline, wants to shake up the industry, but don't all new startups want to do that?

However, at the moment, it might be the industry that is shaking up Zipair.

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Zipair did a cabin reveal late last year but has since been quiet. Photo: Zipair.

The Zipair website has been devoid of activity since late 2019. They have closed online applications for both flight crew and ground crew. Simple Flying has approached JAL, asking whether the May start date for Zipair remains current. So far, they haven't responded to our inquiries.

The situation in both Japan and at Japan Airlines may be impacting the start date at Zipair. Before the current downturn, the Japanese economy had been teetering on the brink of a recession. Nonetheless, the aviation market in and out of Japan is usually buoyant.

The two big players, ANA and JAL, account for the majority of passenger traffic in and out of Japan. ANA has about 38% of the market and JAL has about 33% of the market. That leaves 29% for foreign carriers and other local carriers such as Zipair.

Zipair can be helped by a powerful parent

To a certain extent, Zipair can be insulated by its powerful parent, JAL. But even though Japan has avoided the worst of the current viral outbreak, JAL has been canceling flights and has not been immune from the downturn in demand.

Before that, Japan's popularity as a tourist and business destination had seen JAL squeeze out profits over the last few years. Both factors had encouraged both JAL and ANA to takes stakes in low-cost carriers in order to diversify their passenger base.

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Japan Airlines owns Zipair. Photo: BriYYZ via Wikimedia Commons.

But, as with most other airlines, the profit-making days have halted at JAL. The financial crisis will bite at JAL as it has at other airlines. That may cause it to re-assess the viability of Zipair.

Another sign that Zipair may not be flying as planned in May is the absence of a booking engine. Zipair's website is simple and largely promotional. There is an absence of hard information.

Given that JAL has yet to confirm Zipair's start date with us, it comes down to reading to tea leaves. While nothing's definite, it's arguable that things are not looking good for a May start at Zipair.